Russian forces increased their average speed of advance in 2025 thanks to a new operational model, supported by technological adaptations and a change in attack tactics.
This is summarized by experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW has observed evidence that allows it to estimate that Russian forces captured 4,831 square kilometers in Ukraine and regained about 473 square kilometers that Ukrainian forces had captured in the Kursk region in 2025.
Russian conquests in Ukraine account for 0.8% of the territory of Ukraine. In 2024, Russian forces captured 3,604 square kilometers in Ukraine.
Data from the Ukrainian General Staff shows that Russian forces suffered 416,570 casualties in 2025, an average of 78 casualties per square kilometer of captured territory in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast.
The average daily rate of advance of Russian forces in 2025 was 13.24 square kilometers per day - higher than the average daily rate of 9.87 square kilometers per day in 2024.
However, the Russian pace of advance was not constant in 2025. The Russian pace of advance was highest in November - 20.99 square kilometers per day, but this peak came after one of the slowest months in 2025 - 8.8 square kilometers per day in October - and subsequently dropped to 15 square kilometers per day in December.
Russian forces began using a new operational model that relied on a sustained campaign of air superiority over the battlefield, tactical blocking actions, infiltration missions, and massed attacks with small groups, which allowed the Russians to advance towards Pokrovsk, Aleksandrovka, and Khulyaypole in the fall of 2025.
Russian forces began to achieve some air superiority effects by using drones to block Ukrainian ground defense and supply lines in early spring 2025.
In April and May 2025, the Russian military began to deploy its elite drone operators from the Rubicon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies.
They are largely responsible for the successes of Russia's operational efforts in air superiority area - along the entire front line.
Russian technological adaptations have also supported the Kremlin's campaign to suppress Ukrainian drones.
Russian forces have increased the production of optical drones that are more resistant to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems and radio jamming.
In addition, Moscow has also increased the range of its optical drones from about seven kilometers in early spring 2025 to about 20 kilometers in summer 2025.
Russia's latest technological adaptations have further expanded the range of Russian optical drones to 50-60 kilometers.
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, noted on December 30 that the concentration of Russian optical drones with a range of over 20 kilometers in the direction of Siversk has allowed Russia to take Siversk.
The use of optical drones by Russian forces has also improved their ability to disrupt Ukrainian defense and military supply lines in forest areas.
This is the defense line near Serebryansk, where radio-controlled drones have difficulty operating.
The Kremlin has focused its efforts on capturing the Donetsk region, but also on creating buffer zones around Kharkiv and Sumy.
Ukrainian defensive positions and fortified areas have hampered the Russian offensive in certain areas in 2025. After unsuccessful frontal attacks, the Kremlin adopted new tactics aimed at bypassing Ukrainian defense lines.
Russian forces initially intensified their offensive towards Hulyaipole from the south and southeast in May 2025, but by mid-July 2025 failed to achieve any tactically significant successes due to Ukraine's extensive defensive line, oriented against attacks from the south.
The latest Russian successes towards Hulyaipole have been from the northeast and east, bypassing these defensive lines.
In 2025, Russian forces fired over 54,000 long-range drones and over 1,900 missiles against Ukraine.
The Kremlin has presented alleged evidence to support its claim that Ukrainian drones attacked Russian President Vladimir Putin's residence in the Novgorod region on the night of December 28-29, but the alleged evidence remains inconclusive.
Russian President Vladimir Putin officially declared 2026 the Year of Unity of the Peoples of Russia in his annual New Year's speech.
Ukrainian forces have recently advanced in the western part of Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces have recently advanced near Pokrovsk.