Shortly after the US attack on Venezuela, Cuban head of state Miguel Diaz-Canel told his supporters: "In these times, decisions are needed to take a stand against fascism and barbaric imperialism."
The Cuban president strongly condemned the US military operation, which also killed 32 members of the Cuban security forces. They were sent to Venezuela at the request of the local authorities.
Will there be an American intervention in Cuba?
However, it is not only the deaths of these Cubans that worry Havana. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described the island as a huge problem, not for the first time. Rubio himself is the son of Cuban refugees and has been positioning himself as an opponent of the authoritarian socialist leadership in the island country for years, ARD notes. After the attack on Venezuela, Rubio publicly stated that Cuba could be the target of another American intervention.
US President Donald Trump, in turn, predicted that Cuba could soon fall. "They get all their support from Venezuela. I don't think we should do anything, it looks like they're just going to fall."
Cuba is on the brink
The crisis in Venezuela, which is a close ally of Cuba, also has a direct impact on the Caribbean country. Venezuela supplied oil at extremely low prices, while Cuba, in turn, sent hundreds of doctors, teachers and consultants to Latin America. This barter was vital for both sides, Venezuelan economist Manuel Sutherland told ARD.
In its peak years, Venezuela supplied Cuba with 100,000 barrels of oil per day for the island's thermal power plants, as well as for sale. "This also included services, corruption, money laundering and a bunch of other things. Then the quantity dropped first to 20,000 barrels, then to 14,000. And Trump's latest naval blockade put a final end to the exchange," the Venezuelan economic expert told the German public media.
Cuba is on the brink of collapse and support from the Mexican government, which helps with relatively small amounts of oil, will not help it.
Shadow economy and structural problems
The socialist Caribbean island is experiencing one of the worst crises in decades: regular power outages, huge shortages of food, medicine and fuel. The reason for this is not only US sanctions, but also the shadow economy and structural problems. Since 2021, about a million people have left Cuba.
Sutherland is not convinced that in this situation international partners such as Russia or China will side with the island's authorities. "Both the Russians and the Chinese are angry with the Cubans. They have visited Moscow and Beijing many times to ask for money. And they always get the same answer - you need to make changes, carry out reforms."
In general, there is no great willingness to support the Cubans, the expert told ARD. In principle, there is nothing to be expected from the international community, no one would want to risk incurring Trump's wrath and having punitive tariffs imposed on them for supporting Cuba.
A chance during a crisis?
While other experts believe that this critical situation could lead to the hardening of the regime in Havana, Cuban economist Omar Everleni is of the opinion that there is also a chance in the crisis. The country could be forced to open up even more. The worse the situation gets, the more ideological risks Diaz-Canel will have to take to keep the economy afloat. This means incentives for small and medium-sized businesses, easing imports, and allowing private businesses that were previously banned.
These are reforms that have been talked about for years and that the Cuban leadership has implemented with great reluctance in the past, for fear of losing control, ARD explains. It remains to be seen whether Trump's vision of a complete economic "drying up" will also lead to the fall of the regime, the German public media outlet summarizes.
Author: Anne Demer ARD