"Colombia is very sick and is run by a sick man who loves to produce cocaine and sell it to the United States. He won't be doing it much longer."
Will there be a military operation in Colombia? “That sounds good to me“, Trump said in response to this question.
Colombia: a president who throws himself away
In turn, Colombian President Gustavo Petro was quick to react on Platform X, as he has done many times before in response to attacks by Trump and Elon Musk. “All soldiers in Colombia are ordered: any commander of the security forces who prefers the US flag to the Colombian flag will be immediately fired. "The soldiers are ordered to shoot not at the people, but at the aggressor," Petro wrote, urging Trump to "stop the slander."
"The president takes the attacks very personally, which is why he is more responsible as Gustavo Petro than as a president," political scientist Sanda Borda commented on this occasion to DW. "And for his provocative position, he has the support of only a third of the population. For those who are not leftists, and especially for the entrepreneurial sector, which is very dependent on business with the United States, Petro's reaction is inappropriate. They did not welcome it. "
"The United States is taking a dig at Colombia, and successfully," Borda believes: in Venezuela's neighboring country, the threats of the American government against their president are being taken much more seriously after Maduro's arrest. Washington under Donald Trump has never hidden that left-wing governments in Latin America are a "thorn in the side" and that it considers the continent to be the "backyard" of the United States.
With regard to Colombia, the US strategy may simply be to buy time and feed hopes of a victory for the far-right and US-friendly candidate Abelardo de la Espriella in the presidential elections in May. So far, candidate Ivan Cepeda is leading in the polls, but the right-wing camp is fragmented and a possible run-off with the mobilization of forces could oust Cepeda.
“I don't think it will really come to a military action or intervention in Colombia. But the US is already exerting influence there,” Stefan Peters of the CAPAZ Peace Institute in Bogota told DW. He recalls that Trump eventually successfully intervened in the election campaign in Argentina and Honduras. "Although made in passing, Trump's statement hit like a bomb. And there are definitely calculations behind it," says Peters.
Cuba: The struggle to survive without Venezuelan oil intensifies
"Cuba has no income anymore, they get everything from Venezuela and their oil. I don't think we need to do anything - it looks like everything is just going to collapse there," Trump said. At least outwardly, this did not seem to cause much concern for Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel. But in front of supporters in Havana, he denounced "fascist state terrorism" and “imperialist barbarity“, after which he pointed out: “For the sake of Cuba and Venezuela, we are even ready to shed blood and give our lives. No, imperialist gentlemen, this is not your backyard!“.
However, political scientist Bert Hoffmann points out to DW that Cuba is the biggest loser from the American military strike against Venezuela. “The fall of Venezuelan oil will exacerbate the energy crisis even more – given that it is about 70 percent of the fuel imported into Cuba“. According to the political scientist, concern is a fact among both the population and the government. “The crisis will continue to worsen.“
This means that Trump's strategy to bleed Cuba dry may turn out to be correct. And now the Cubans' daily routine is difficult: hours without electricity, a daily struggle for food, medicine and fuel, vain expectations of tourists after the collapse of the industry, which was the most important source of income. Hoffman predicts that now the Cuban government will try to replace the lost oil supplies from Venezuela with those from Russia, the Arab countries, Iran or Algeria.
However, the expert does not believe that Cuba can hope for much help from Russia and China. Support - yes, but without open confrontation with the United States.
However, Hoffman does not believe that the United States will soon carry out a military intervention in Cuba. “However, economic pressure measures can be further intensified, for example through sanctions against ships that dock in Cuba. But after what we saw in Venezuela, in the medium term, a complete maritime blockade is not out of the question“.
Mexico: The president is forced to maneuver again
“She's very afraid of the cartels“, Trump said of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum in an interview with Fox News on Saturday. “I asked her many times, “Do you want to eliminate the cartels?“. According to Trump, Sheinbaum said no. “So we have to do something, because because of the drugs that come into the country, we lose thousands of people every year“, Trump also said.
The left-wing Mexican President Sheinbaum has so far managed to appease Trump, showing great diplomatic skill, including on the issue of the customs dispute. Again in the same diplomatic spirit, she said: “I don't think there will be an invasion. I don't even think we should seriously consider it“.
“The worst-case scenario is not related to Trump's threat of a military coup, but that there may be Mexicans who would want such a coup and would welcome it“, wrote in a commentary in the largest Mexican newspaper “El Universal“.
This quote pretty accurately summarizes the indirect damage of Trump's threats towards Colombia, Cuba and Mexico. Even if the US does not attack any of these three countries, which seems very likely for now, the attempts at intimidation are having an effect on society and are stimulating a rightward turn in Latin America.
Author: Oliver Piper