US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to acquire Greenland, if necessary by force. The territory is part of NATO ally Denmark, and the White House's motive is to wrest the island from China's potential control, notes Agence France-Presse, writes BTA.
According to analysts quoted by AFP, Beijing is not a significant player in Arctic affairs, and the American leader is exaggerating the threat.
WHAT ARE CHINA'S INTERESTS AND ACTIVITIES IN THE REGION SO FAR
Despite Trump's claims that if the US does not intervene, “Greenland will soon be swarming with Chinese destroyers and submarines“, the military presence of the Celestial Empire in the North Pole region is minimal.
“Greenland is not swarming with Russian and Chinese ships. "This is nonsense," said Poul Sigurd Hilde of the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies.
China does have a military presence in other parts of the Arctic, but it is modest and is mainly due to increased engagement with Russia since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
CHINA'S PATH TO THE ARCTIC GOES THROUGH RUSSIA
“China's only path to gaining significant influence in the Arctic is through Russia,” Hilde said.
The two countries have stepped up their joint operations in the Arctic and in the area of coast guard, including conducting a joint bomber patrol mission (overflight) off Alaska.
China also has several icebreakers equipped with small submarines (bathyscaphes) that can map seabed – which could potentially be useful for deploying military forces – and space satellites to monitor the Arctic.
Beijing claims that the technology is exclusively for scientific purposes.
POLAR GREAT POWER
These activities “are a potential security concern if China establishes any permanent military presence or military assets in the region“, said Helena Legarda of the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies. “China has undisguised ambitions to expand its influence in this region, which it sees as an emerging arena of geopolitical competition.“
In 2018, China launched the “Polar Silk Road“ initiative “ the polar direction of the transnational initiative “One Belt, One Road“, also known as the New Silk Road. Beijing also aims to become a “polar great power“ by 2030.
The Asian giant has set up its own research stations in Iceland and Norway, and Chinese companies are investing in projects such as Russian liquefied gas and a Swedish railway line.
The competition with China for resources and access to trade routes in the Arctic could threaten European interests, Legarda said.
But Beijing's ambitions in the region have recently met with resistance. China's offers to buy an abandoned naval station in Greenland and an airport in Finland have hit a snag.
The United States has put pressure on these countries to reject the offers, AFP notes. In 2019, Greenland refused to entrust the Chinese company “Huawei“ with the construction of fifth-generation (5G) telecommunications networks.
Russia remains an exception. Beijing is investing significantly in resources and ports on its northern coasts.
WHAT IS CHINA'S INTEREST IN GREENLAND
According to the US Geological Survey, Greenland ranks eighth in the world in rare earth reserves. These are chemical elements of vital importance for technological production in all areas, from electric vehicles to military equipment.
Although China is the world's number one in the extraction of these metals, attempts to gain access to Greenland's resources have not been crowned with particular success, AFP notes.
For environmental reasons, in 2021, Greenlandic authorities stopped a China-related project to develop the large deposit of critical natural resources in Kvanefeld, and in 2024, another deposit in southern Greenland was sold to a New York company after American lobbying.
“Decades ago, concerns arose in Denmark and the United States that such investments in mining, several times exceeding Greenland's gross domestic product, could lead to an increase in Chinese influence, but these investments never became a reality“, said Jesper Villaing Zeuthen of Aalborg University. “China has recently reduced its activity in this (resource) area because it has judged that the diplomatic cost is too high.“
Another interest for China is the Arctic sea corridors, as the melting of glaciers due to warming in the Arctic makes it possible to open a new transport link between China and Europe.
In October, China and Russia agreed to develop the Northern Sea Route along Russia's northern borders.
Last year, a Chinese ship reached Britain in 20 days through the Arctic, which halves the time compared to the classic route through the Suez Canal.
In fact, this route could transform international shipping and reduce China's dependence on the Strait of Malacca for its trade, AFP notes.
But to sail at these latitudes, ships must be modified so that they can overcome the extreme conditions of the North Pole, where there is constant ice and fog, making navigation difficult. Chinese ships made only 14 voyages last year along this route, mainly transporting Russian gas.
The alternative to this route is along the Canadian islands - the so-called Northwest Passage - which reduces the risk for the West of the emergence of Russian-Chinese hegemony in this part of the world, AFP notes.
TRUMP'S GREENLAND POLICY IS A THREAT TO RUSSIA
So far, Russian reactions to the US president's actions around Greenland have been rather restrained, with some journalists and analysts close to the Kremlin even accepting with undisguised joy the brewing discord in the ranks of NATO, CNN notes.
But the thing is that if Washington gains control of Greenland, this could call into question Russian dominance in this part of the world. Perhaps even more worrying for the Kremlin is the fact that the unpredictable Trump administration is beginning to exercise unbridled military-economic power across the globe, the American television network commented.
“Unilateral and dangerous actions often replace diplomacy and efforts to find compromises or solutions that would benefit everyone“, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently complained in his first New Year's speech.
At the same time, Moscow's network of international alliances is rapidly crumbling. Last year, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad fell, in June the regime in Tehran was shaken by painful US-Israeli air strikes, and now it is shaken by a wave of protests that threatens its existence, CNN commented.
Earlier this month, the US captured one of Moscow's favorites, Nicolas Maduro, in a special operation in Caracas, and many believe that the next target of the Trump administration will be Russia's long-standing client regime in Cuba.
Therefore, for the Kremlin, the increasingly unpredictable Trump may turn out to be a much more unpleasant partner in international relations compared to a more stable and predictable administration in Washington. A symptomatic expression of this was perhaps a recent commentary by the Russian mass-circulation publication “Moskovsky Komsomolets“, which likened the world to a madhouse and Trump to its chief physician, and noted with concern that “we are left with the feeling that the chief physician has also gone mad and that everything is falling apart“.