A traffic accident involving Ramzan Kadyrov's son in Grozny suddenly revealed something that the Kremlin has long preferred not to talk about: Chechnya is an unresolved problem, and Putin is helpless to deal with what he himself created.
The story of the traffic accident involving Adam Kadyrov (in which he received serious injuries - ed.) - the son and possible heir apparent of the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, would seem like an element of an ordinary regional chronicle if it had not happened exactly in Chechnya. The cars, the motorcade, the speed, the victims, the injuries – in Putin's system, this usually ends with an official announcement, an investigation, and the appointment of perpetrators. But in Chechen reality, everything happens differently - a deathly silence sets in. And it is this silence that turns out to be much more important than the incident itself.
Deafening silence
The silence on the part of the authorities in Chechnya and Moscow, which was deathly, synchronous, and disciplined, became the most honest answer to the question of what happened. It speaks not of control, but of helplessness. Because the incident suddenly revealed what the Kremlin has preferred not to talk about for many years: Chechnya is an unresolved problem, frozen by personal agreements - a territory that has never been included in Putin's otherwise quite resilient power system.
Ramzan Kadyrov has long ruled the republic as a private domain. State institutions have been replaced by a clan system in which positions are held by relatives and confidants, and loyalty is more important than any formal competence. Power is not delegated – it is distributed within the family. Security is not guaranteed by law, it is ensured by proximity to the head of the clan.
In this system, any problem surrounding a potential heir automatically turns into a political crisis. Because although power is not institutionalized, it cannot survive even minor shocks without consequences. Therefore, it seems that the car accident involving the beloved son of the head of the republic turns out to be a question of the stability of the entire power in Chechnya.
What to do?
In this story, the Kremlin would prefer not to say anything. Neither the Investigative Committee, nor the Ministry of Internal Affairs, nor the presidential administration are in a hurry to comment. And this silence does not mean attention, but a lack of a plan. For many years, Putin deliberately renounced any real institutional presence in Chechnya, delegating everything to one person. In return, he received ostentatious stability, loyalty, and fantastic results in the “elections“.
But control in Chechnya has always been personal, not state. And now the uncomfortable question arises: what to do if the personal system cracks? How to react without admitting that the entire model of governing the region was built on an unreliable foundation and on Putin's personal guarantees for Kadyrov?
In Chechnya itself, the situation is also far from the myth of monolithic support. The silent majority does not demonstrate loyalty - it demonstrates fear. Kadyrov's power vertical is supported by money, repression, and the personal devotion of his closest entourage. But any such system has its limits. The more the pressure is tightened, the greater the internal tension becomes.
„Transition of power“ in Chechnya is in question
Here comes the key moment - the transition of power, which does not exist in Chechnya in any clear form. Formally filling positions with relatives does not solve the problem of succession, but only postpones it and makes it more dangerous. From Putin's point of view, a „normal transition“ means predictability, manageability and the absence of the risk of an explosion. However, the family monarchy in the Caucasus region does not meet these criteria.
Who and how should inherit power? Under what conditions? With whose consent? And what should be done if a struggle begins within the clan, and the federal security forces, to put it mildly, are not eager to recognize and support such a transition? There are no answers to these questions. That is precisely why the Kremlin is prolonging the pause – because any clear signal could provoke what it is trying to prevent.
A separate line of tension is the relationship with the federal security forces and the pro-war asset. For them, Chechnya has long been a territory of exceptions: with a special status, inviolable and beyond control. Against the backdrop of the war and mobilization rhetoric, this is causing increasing irritation. For now – silently.
A large-scale crisis
The conclusion is that the standard incident in Grozny suddenly turned into a demonstration of a large-scale crisis. It showed that Chechnya remains an unstable construct within Putin's system. That its stability is based on personal guarantees. That the transition of power there has not been thought out and prepared. And that the Kremlin, despite the myth of omnipotence, does not control the consequences of its own decisions, but only postpones the moment when it will have to face them. Considering the many rumors about Ramzan Kadyrov's health, it is not clear how long this decision can be postponed. The road accident in Grozny shows that Putin has no idea what will happen to what he himself created.
This text expresses the author's opinion and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and DW as a whole.