Strong political statements from Athens regarding Greece's sovereign rights in the Aegean Sea and an unusual silence from Ankara have been observed in recent days in anticipation of the meeting between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the first half of February.
The next Greece-Turkey High-Level Cooperation Council with the participation of Erdogan and Mitsotakis is expected to take place in Ankara in the first ten days of next month, and Mitsotakis vowed that Greece will discuss “only one issue” “ the definition of maritime borders.
“Turkey must refrain from a number of claims that are completely groundless“, he also warned the Greek television Alpha.
At the same time, the Turkish side, represented by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, stated that it intends not to “postpone its problems, but to solve them permanently“.
“We will sit at the table with the will to solve the existing problems and we will not leave until this happens. We want to find a lasting solution, especially to the issues that concern the Aegean Sea“, said the Turkish top diplomat at a recent press conference.
Fidan noted that anti-Turkish sentiments are a powerful tool for mobilization in Greece's domestic politics, and “the domestic political balance there does not give many opportunities to any political leader to solve this problem and put his signature under the decision“ because of the political price that he will have to pay.
Regarding the actions that Turkey should take take, he mentioned the need to implement measures to increase trust between the parties and to avoid using unfounded issues as a means to achieve domestic political goals.
"I hope that we will resolve this issue as a people, without this historic opportunity being wasted. I believe that this is possible", the Turkish Foreign Minister also said, highlighting the vision and will of the Turkish President on this issue.
Fidan's statement was interpreted by some as a partial retreat from Ankara's long-standing demand for a comprehensive “package solution“ to the Greek-Turkish disputes, wrote the "Kathimerini" newspaper.
In an absentee response to the words of the Turkish top diplomat at the end of last week, his Greek counterpart Giorgos Gerapetritis stated in parliament that Athens plans to expand its territorial waters and create a second marine park in the Aegean Sea as part of efforts to strengthening Greece's maritime sovereignty.
Both actions are unacceptable to Turkey, as in 1995 it adopted a resolution stating that if Greece expanded its territorial waters in the Aegean Sea, Ankara would consider this a cause for war (casus belli), and last year Ankara stated that Greece's "unilateral" announced plans to build marine parks in the Ionian and Aegean Seas "have no legal value" and accused Athens of "exploiting universal values in order to push a geopolitical agenda."
In his speech, Gerapetritis also criticized Turkey's long-standing claims based on the "Blue Homeland" (Mavi Vatan) doctrine as "unacceptable" and stressed that Greece today has stronger legal and diplomatic arguments, supported by European Union standards.
Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias also joined the discussion, stating in an interview with the local OPEN TV that "Greece reserves the sovereign and unilateral right to extend its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles". According to him, such a decision depends on an assessment of the national interest. He stressed that Greece cannot accept the "casus belli" – – "cause for war" declared by the Turkish parliament in 1995 in response to a potential Greek expansion of territorial waters – as a basis for discussion, adding that international law clearly provides for the right to extend territorial waters and that this is a fundamental issue of sovereignty.
Against these statements from neighboring Greece, Turkey has remained unusually silent.
According to some analysts, this is an attempt to prevent rising tensions ahead of the upcoming sixth meeting of the High-Level Cooperation Council between Turkey and Greece next month.
Mehmet Yogüçü, in an analysis on the subject published in the "Yetkin Report", notes that the lack of a clear position on the part of Ankara in Hakan Fidan's statement "on vital issues such as the expansion of Greek maritime spaces, the arming of the islands and the violation of the status quo in the Aegean Sea" may be a sign that Ankara is displaying "deliberate diplomatic restraint in order to avoid poisoning the atmosphere" before the negotiations.
The author emphasizes, however, that in international politics, silence could create a sense of hesitation or weakness, which could lead to erroneous judgments. As he writes, the issue of extending Greek territorial waters in the Aegean Sea to 12 nautical miles is non-negotiable for Turkey.
"No Turkish government would accept, nor could accept, that the exit from the Sea of Marmara to the Mediterranean Sea be left to the unilateral discretion of Greece", emphasizes Yogüçü. "For this reason, the decision of the Grand National Assembly of June 8, 1995, namely the determination that 12 miles would be considered a “casus belli“, should not simply be recalled today; it must be updated and confirmed by a parliamentary decision", the author of the article adds.
The publication also quotes Hakan Fidan's ranking of the three main crises facing Turkey in 2026, namely: Syria, Gaza and the war in Ukraine.
"Today, this issue (about the Aegean Sea) may not be classified as a “crisis“. But that is precisely why it is more dangerous. Because tensions that are not defined as crises can often turn into crises overnight due to misjudgment", warns Yogüçü, however.