A Decisive Year at the Front! Three Variants for the Development of the War in Ukraine

This year seems decisive for the course of hostilities in Ukraine. But "war has its own logic" and the situation can change significantly, which gives grounds for various assumptions about the development of events in the current year. "Continuation of hostilities, exhaustion on the part of Ukraine and "fatigue" of Russia - such variants for the development of the situation around the war are indicated by The Wall Street Journal, quoted by Focus.

The first and most likely scenario, according to the publication, is the continuation of the "war of attrition". In that case, the parties will continue the negotiations, which will “go in circles”.

The publication, citing experts, notes that both sides in the conflict still have the resources - manpower, weapons, money to continue the conflict. However, both Moscow and Kiev fear a possible sharp reaction from US President Donald Trump if the negotiations reach a dead end.

The Trump administration is betting that Russian President Vladimir Putin's long-standing desire for control over Ukraine is only public and that he will make peace if Kiev gives up the territories of Donbas that Russian troops have not yet seized. The heavily fortified cities that Ukraine still holds represent the most difficult obstacle to Russia's advance into the open agricultural lands in the center of the country.

The second option assumes the exhaustion of Ukraine's forces. WSJ draws attention to the fact that recruits to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are not motivated and are increasingly deserting. Kiev is compensating for the shortage of infantrymen by improving unmanned systems, but Moscow is also not lagging behind in the field of UAVs.

The shortage of reserves in 2025 forced Ukraine to strengthen its eastern border at the expense of others. This gave Russia the opportunity to advance south, including in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. WSJ writes that the Ukrainian army is becoming more and more like "a too short veil that either does not cover the neck or leaves the legs exposed".

The Russian economy is stagnant, many non-military industries are shrinking, low oil prices, Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and the actions of the United States and Europe against the Russian "shadow fleet" are putting pressure on the energy sector, on which the Kremlin's income depends. However, as the WSJ journalists note, there are no signs so far that Putin is worried about the negative reaction of the elites or Russian society.

“Russia cannot continue its war indefinitely. Tougher sanctions and law enforcement measures could shorten that period“, the article states. If Russia or both sides conclude that they can no longer continue the war, the negotiations could turn into a more serious search for a compromise that is minimally acceptable to Ukraine and Russia.