Following the US attack on Cuba's closest ally - Venezuela - and the kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro, Caracas has stopped oil supplies to the island. In late January, US President Donald Trump described Cuba as an "exceptional threat to US national security" and threatened punitive tariffs on all countries that continue to supply Cuba with oil and petroleum products.
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel called the measures "fascist, criminal and genocidal". Meanwhile, he said that Cuba is ready for talks with the US without conditions. The president insists that his regime is not "close to failure" and took action to strengthen the energy sector.
Life goes on somehow
"Trump is crazy, he wants to take our air. And the other guy is even more fanatical when it comes to Cuba," Aleida, who rents rooms in Havana, told DW. "The other guy" for her is US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is of Cuban origin. He is considered the main driver of the policy of "maximum pressure" against Venezuela and Cuba. "We can only wait and see what happens," Aleida says worriedly.
"Sometimes I think Trump will attack us, and other times - that he won't abandon us so that he can then present himself as a savior," says 21-year-old civil servant Rachel. She makes no secret of the fact that she expects the future to be difficult.
"Trump is hurting us, the ordinary people, not the government", believes Ramon. He is over 60, drives a taxi and lives off the income from tourism, which continued to collapse last year. Meanwhile, gasoline is sold only for foreign currency and after hours spent in lines at gas stations. Power outages between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m. have become commonplace in Havana. The country produces only 40 percent of its electricity needs. And yet life in Havana continues to go on as if at its normal pace.
Latin America expert Bert Hoffman, who is currently in Havana, confirms this. "I feel a great sense of anticipation. The crisis has normalized. Power outages have increased, gasoline has decreased, but everything remains relatively calm. Traffic on the streets has not stopped." Hoffman, however, says that this is a false normality, as the authorities have no prospect of finding oil.
Cuba could run out of gasoline within weeks
According to Hoffman, everything has been different since January 3rd - since Venezuela dropped out as Cuba's most important fuel supplier. Mexico, the second most important supplier, also canceled planned January deliveries - not a single oil tanker has reached Cuba since December 9th.
In January, Cuba managed to buy an oil tanker that was supposed to arrive from Togo, but on the way it changed course and headed for the Dominican Republic. It can be assumed that this happened under pressure from the United States, Hoffman believes. "Apparently, even if Cuba could buy oil, it is not arriving." The same applies to possible deliveries from Algeria, Angola, China or Vietnam. "I assume that the US is making great efforts to prevent this", says the expert. For this reason, it is likely that in the near future Cuba will be completely without fuel, which will lead to brutal consequences.
Experts believe that Cuba's current fuel needs amount to 100,000 barrels of crude oil per day. Until now, Venezuela has been supplying between a quarter and a third of this amount. In 2025, Mexico supplied between 6,000 and 12,000 barrels per day, with smaller quantities arriving from Russia and Algeria.
"There were rumors that in February there would be no oil at all", says Rachel. And since February is here, she hopes that consumption has decreased and the fuel can last longer.
Over the past two years, Cuba has invested heavily in building solar parks with Chinese support, but they cannot cover the needs. The country's electricity supply continues to depend on old Soviet-made thermal power plants. That is why Cuba urgently needs to import energy. The fuel that the country produces covers 40 percent of its needs, but it cannot be processed into gasoline and is used only in power plants.
No one knows how long the available fuel will last, Hoffman points out. In January, the "Financial Times" came out with a forecast of another 15 to 20 days. However, the consequences will be fatal in any case. "It is a matter of weeks before the gasoline runs out. "And if there is no gasoline, not only will tourists not be able to get from the beach to the airport, but food from the fields will also not be able to reach the city," the expert emphasizes.
Mexico has announced that it will send humanitarian aid this week. Diplomatic studies are also being conducted on possible oil supplies. However, Mexico is very economically dependent on the United States, which is why the room for maneuver is limited.
Rubio wants regime change
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has offered to mediate possible negotiations between Washington and Havana, although it is not clear what should be negotiated. US Secretary of State Rubio made no secret at a Senate hearing in January that his goal is regime change.
Unlike Venezuela, Cuba has less economic value than symbolic value. The island is a kind of embodiment of resistance to the Monroe Doctrine and US claims to dominance in the Western Hemisphere. "In Washington, they feel like they have a tight grip on everyone and now is the time for Cuba to capitulate, whatever that means in this particular case," says Hoffman.
In recent days, Trump has assured that his government is holding talks with the Cuban leadership. However, it has denied it - there have been contacts, but not dialogue. In the words of Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernandez de Cosio, "it would be wrong to say that bilateral negotiations are being prepared.".
At the same time, Cosio stressed that his country has "limited options" regarding the oil embargo. He announced an upcoming emergency action plan, which would be announced to the population in the coming days. It would be "difficult for the government and very difficult for the population as a whole".
Russian Ambassador to Cuba Viktor Coronelli, for his part, said that Moscow planned to continue supplying oil to Cuba. "In recent years, Russia has repeatedly supplied oil to Cuba. We believe that this practice will continue."
Author: Andreas Knobloch