Residents of Western countries are increasingly convinced that a world war is about to break out, according to a sociological survey by the magazine “Politico“, which covered the United States, Canada, Great Britain and Germany, BTA reported.
The majority of respondents in the five countries believe that the world is becoming an increasingly dangerous place. According to the survey, Americans, Canadians, French and British believe that within the next five years it is more likely than not that World War III will break out.
The highest share of respondents who believe that a global conflict is likely to happen is in the United States - 46% versus 25% who believe that this is unlikely. This is a significant increase compared to a similar survey in 2025, when 38% of respondents in the United States considered the outbreak of World War III to be very likely. The share of pessimistic respondents in the United Kingdom increased the most - from 30% to 43%.
In contrast to the three nuclear powers, sentiment in Germany is more optimistic - 40% of respondents believe that the outbreak of a world war is unlikely (34% shared this opinion in 2025).
The share of respondents who predict the outbreak of a new global nuclear conflict has increased sharply compared to the level of the first such sociological survey by “Politico“ by March 2025, the publication notes.
“The change in the mood of the Western public in less than a year reflects a dramatic shift towards a more uncertain world, in which war is considered likely and alliances – unstable“, says the head of sociological research Seb Reid of the research company “Public First“.
Russia is considered the greatest threat to peace in Europe, and Canadians believe that President Donald Trump's America is the greatest threat to their security. In France, Germany and the UK, the United States is considered the second greatest threat, significantly ahead of China.
However, the survey also reveals the lack of willingness of the Western public to make sacrifices in the name of more funding for military spending, commented “Politico“. While respondents in Britain, France, Germany and Canada strongly support increasing defense budgets in principle, that support drops sharply when they learn that doing so could mean increasing government debt, cutting services or raising taxes.
“Our research shows that heightened fears of war do not give leaders carte blanche to significantly increase defense spending,“ says Reid. “In fact, it could be argued that voters are less willing to accept compromises in the name of strengthening military security. European leaders face a dilemma – "They cannot rely on the United States, they cannot use this as a reason to invest in their own countries, and they are under increasing pressure to urgently find a way out of this dilemma in a world where conflict seems closer than ever," he added.
The survey was conducted from February 6 to 9. It surveyed 2,000 residents in each of the five countries. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.