Oil companies and fracking in the US are among the big winners from the war in Iran – President Trump himself points out: “The United States is definitely the largest oil producer in the world, and as prices increase, we will accumulate a lot of money,“ he recently announced on social media.
The US is a net exporter of oil and petroleum products
Thanks to its shale oil extraction industry, the US actually produces more oil than any other country in the world. And since 2020, they have been a net exporter of oil and petroleum products, ARD points out.
This is also due to the powerful oil business in the country: in 2025, the US exported about five million barrels of refined petroleum products - gasoline, diesel and kerosene - per day.
Fracking only makes sense at prices of about $70 per barrel
The current high oil prices in the US benefit fuel producers, exporting refineries, pipeline operators and, last but not least, the fracking industry.
As expert estimates show, undertaking new fracking drilling in the US is profitable at an oil price of $60 to $70 per barrel. Prices above $100, as they have been recently, significantly increase the profits of companies in this sector.
The number of American oil rigs is growing again
The first reaction to the rise in oil prices became a fact in the first two weeks of March - the number of active oil rigs increased from 407 to 412, the German public media reported. This is a trend that will continue if prices remain high or continue to increase.
“However, large additional quantities from the USA cannot be expected in the short term“, emphasizes to ARD, commodities expert at “Commerzbank“ Carsten Fritsch. “The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that US crude oil production will only increase in the late fall of this year and will be much higher in 2027 than it is now“, Fritsch said.
The EIA raised its forecast for 2027 by 0.5 million to 13.8 million barrels per day. The rationale is that current high prices stimulate domestic oil production.
Rising gasoline prices are becoming a risk for Trump
However, no matter how much the US oil industry benefits from rising prices, in the long run they cannot be in Trump's interest, ARD commented. Because permanently high oil prices will weaken both the US economy - businesses and consumers, i.e. - the voters.
Last week, the average price of gasoline rose to $3.60 per gallon (that's about 3.8 liters), and before the war in Iran it was $2.90. During the election campaign, Trump promised that fuel prices would fall.
Trump's strategy for global energy dominance
However, the attack on Iran perfectly coincides with Trump's quest for “energy dominance“, which the American president is pursuing with increasing aggression. Just a day before the attack on Iran, Trump said that he “wants to cement the leading role of the United States as a global energy superpower“.
That is why Trump is betting on the maximum extraction of fossil fuels in the United States, and many of his foreign policy measures are interpreted by critics as steps towards the goal of global “energy dominance“, the German public media reports.
Why Venezuelan oil is important for American refineries
In view of these intentions of Trump, the attacks on Venezuela and then on Iran reveal a clear pattern: Washington is trying to redirect global oil flows in a way that weakens rival countries, strengthening its own influence on the oil market.
“Wall Street Journal“ wrote that US imports of Venezuelan oil have recently reached their highest level in more than a year. Venezuelan oil is particularly attractive to many of America's coastal refineries, as their facilities are well-equipped to process heavy crude from Venezuela, which has a higher sulfur content, writes ARD.
China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil
Obviously, the goal of Trump's energy policy is to integrate Venezuelan oil more strongly into the global market, as well as Iranian oil - if the regime is successfully overthrown. And this should happen under conditions controlled by Washington, writes the German public media.
Such actions will weaken the main enemy China, which until now has been profiting heavily from sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian fuels and thus saving billions. Recently, China has been buying at least 80 percent of Iranian oil - an average of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2025.
“Things will naturally become more complicated for China in this situation, because other suppliers will have to be sought“, raw materials expert Fritsch told ARD, adding that prices will already be higher. However, he points out that the situation will not catch China completely unprepared. “The Chinese have recently invested a lot in replenishing their oil reserves.“ They are estimated to have around 1.4 billion barrels or even over two billion, the German public media also writes. She notes that as a result, it will not be easy for Trump to achieve his goal of energy dominance.
Author: Angela Göpfert ARD