Ukraine is currently preventing Russian forces from achieving significant tactical gains along the entire front line, but the continued delay in US security assistance is likely to increase the threat of Russian operational success.
This is what the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns in its daily analysis.
In an interview with CBS News published on March 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces have managed to hold off Russian advances throughout the winter of 2023-2024. and that Ukrainian forces have stabilized the operational situation.
Ukrainian forces have slowed the pace of Russian advances west of Avdiivka since the Russian capture of the village on February 17, and Russian forces have achieved only gradual, minor tactical successes in other parts of Ukraine.
However, Zelensky said that Ukrainian forces are not prepared to defend themselves against another major Russian offensive, expected in May or June 2024.
Russian forces are likely to continue to maintain the pace of their offensive operations into the spring of 2024. despite difficult weather and terrain conditions to take advantage of Ukrainian materiel shortages before the arrival of expected limited Western security assistance.
Russian forces are also likely aiming to force Ukraine to expend materiel that it could otherwise amass for defensive efforts this summer and possible counteroffensive operations later in 2024 or 2025.
The widespread shortages could force Ukraine to prioritize limited resources in critical sectors of the front.
ISW estimates that Russian forces have captured 505 sq km of territory since the start of offensive operations in October 2023, and between January 1 and March 28, 2024, Russian forces captured almost 100 sq km more territory than in the last three months of 2023. (although this rate of advance may be due to a combination of Ukrainian materiel shortages and more favorable weather conditions in winter than in fall).
However, this slight increase in the pace of Russian advance does not reflect the threat of Russian operational success against the backdrop of the continued slowdown in US security assistance.
Limitations in materiel limit the ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct effective defensive operations, while offering Russian forces flexibility in conducting offensive operations, which could lead to complexity and non-linear opportunities for Russian forces to achieve operationally significant successes in the future.
The opportunities to exploit Ukrainian vulnerabilities will expand as materiel shortages persist and Ukraine continues to struggle with how to address human resource challenges.
The provision of sufficient and regular Western security assistance and the resolution of problems, related to human resources in Ukraine, would limit these opportunities for Russian forces and would provide Ukrainian forces with the opportunity to stop Russian forces from achieving even minor tactical successes, reduce Russian offensive capabilities, and prepare for future counteroffensive operations to liberate more Ukrainian territory.
The continued deterioration of Ukrainian air defenses is one of the most immediate opportunities through which Russian forces can cause non-linear operational impacts.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that Russian forces have fired 190 missiles of various types, 140 Shahed drones, and 700 guided bombs on targets in Ukraine between March 18 and 24.
The increased Russian drone and missile strikes are likely to put renewed pressure on Ukraine to prioritize the allocation of scarce air defense assets to protect populated areas, critical infrastructure, and industrial sites in the rear of front-line positions.
Kuleba said that Russia's widespread use of guided bombs on the front line gives it a major advantage on the battlefield and that the only way to counter this tactic is for Ukrainian forces to shoot down the Russian aircraft carrying out the strikes, which requires a sufficient number of air defense systems on the front.
Russian forces used massive strikes with tactical effect bombs in the capture of Avdiivka in mid-February and in 2024. have steadily increased the use of guided and unguided bombs against Ukrainian positions in the rear and at the front.
Russia's ability to conduct opportunistic but limited offensive actions along Ukraine's international border with Russia provides it with additional opportunities to restrict Ukrainian manpower and materiel, but Western aid provisions and Ukrainian efforts to address manpower challenges would reduce the impact of such Russian efforts.
Zelensky told CBS that Ukrainian forces were building fortifications and defensive positions near the city of Sumy in response to reports of a significant buildup of Russian forces in neighboring Bryansk Oblast and recent strikes on Ukrainian villages in the area.
The range of possible outcomes - the range of possible outcomes from the most favorable to the most dangerous - is very wide and will remain so until it becomes clear whether the United States will resume its military support and whether Ukraine will address the challenges associated with human resources.
Both the United States and Ukraine retain significant power in determining the course of the war this year and in the years to come. The immediate and long-term prospects of this war remain highly dependent on the decisions yet to be made in Washington, Kiev, Brussels, Paris, Berlin, Moscow and elsewhere, as well as on the implementation of those decisions in Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has continued to make sensational statements as part of Russia's campaign of reflexive control, which is intended to deter further Western military assistance to Ukraine and to divert attention from the growing positioning of Russian forces against NATO.
Putin dismissed as "complete nonsense" claims that Russia wants to attack other countries, including Poland, the Baltic states and the Czech Republic, adding that Russia is protecting people living in "historic territories" Russia in Ukraine.
Putin's denial of Russia's increasingly aggressive stance against NATO's eastern flank is reminiscent of the Kremlin's claims that Russian forces will not invade Ukraine in late 2021. and early 2022.
Putin also tried to intimidate NATO countries into not supplying Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets and tried to dissuade Western audiences from further financial commitments to Ukraine and NATO's security.
Putin stated that Russia would destroy the F-16 aircraft in Ukraine, as it has destroyed other military equipment provided by the West, and threatened that Russia would target Western airfields if Ukraine used those facilities to facilitate strikes against Russia.
Putin's statements on March 27 are neither new nor surprising, and best illustrate the way the Kremlin routinely floods the Western information space, often with irrelevant or decontextualized truths rather than outright disinformation or disinformation, to shape global perceptions and achieve its own long-term goals. goals.
These statements should be analyzed in conjunction with the endless instances of the Kremlin's reuse of the same narratives, not as stand-alone infantas.
Overcoming, confusing, and manipulating Western information space and perceptions is part of Russia's strategy of "reflexive control" - or a way of conveying the reasons for a decision to an opponent so that he can freely reach a predetermined decision.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed concern about the rise in ethnic tensions in Russian society following the attacks on Crocus City Hall, and may be falsely blaming Ukraine and the West for the Crocus City Hall attack to divert the country's attention from ethnic tensions.
On March 28, Putin said he was concerned about statements by "jingo-patriots" that "Russia is only for [ethnic] Russians", possibly referring to footage from March 24 of Russian ultranationalists harassing a woman from the Sakha Republic on the Moscow metro and shouting that "Russia is only for [ethnic] Russians".
An independent investigation has found that international information campaigns linked to the deceased financier of the "Wagner" group; Yevgeny Prigozhin, have remained active, even though the Russian government has shut down media companies and organizations openly linked to Prigozhin since his death.
The American cybersecurity company Mandiant reported on March 28 that several information operations campaigns linked to Prigozhin remain active, namely the Newsroom for American and European Based Citizens Campaign, Cyber Front Z, and the Togo-based Panafrican Group for Commerce and Investment.
Senior Russian officials are stepping up their accusations against the Armenian leadership as Armenia continues to distance itself from its security ties with Russia after the Kremlin abandoned Armenia to its fate after it lost Nagorno-Karabakh.
On March 28, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the Armenian leadership was deliberately contributing to the deterioration of Russian-Armenian relations by inventing fabricated pretexts and distorting the past three and a half years of history.