Russia is advancing slowly but steadily in Ukraine, writes the French newspaper Le Monde. The Russians have captured 505 square kilometers of as of October 2023.
After capturing Avdeevka, a pre-war Donbas town of 35,000 that fell on February 17, Russian forces are besieging Chasov Yar. For now, however, they are far from capturing this strategic city.
Western military experts are concerned that Russia's growing military potential could ultimately give Moscow the upper hand. Russia maintains a significant quantitative advantage in the conflict, surpassing Ukraine in terms of ammunition and equipment. Kyiv is at a critical moment, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken admitted.
The bomb planners of the Russian Federation are of particular concern. Since the beginning of the year, Russian warplanes have dropped more than 3,500 of these planning bombs on Ukrainian targets. These bombs are quite inaccurate, but destructive.
According to the general staff of Kiev, it was with these shells that the Russians captured Avdeyevka, destroying the buildings of the city one by one, making the Ukrainian positions unstable. So far, the Ukrainian aviation is unable to oppose them, as it does not have Western fighter jets.
The West is also concerned about the replenishment of Russian missile reserves. Many experts believe they are depleted after two years of war and cannot be replenished quickly because of the Western embargo on electronic components. Moscow appears to have found ways to circumvent these sanctions and partially supply its weapons factories. Western capitals are also worried that after the drones, Iran may decide to supply ballistic missiles to Moscow.
The main problem of the Russian army remains its resistance to change. It can adapt marginally at the level of smaller units, but it is unable to learn lessons on a more global scale: it cannot yet conduct joint maneuvers, its logistics are flawed, and its chain of command is too centralized.
The Russians are in the same situation as the French army in late 1917, early 1918. Although the mass of their infantry may allow them to break through, they are unable to materialize this advantage.