Ask Ukrainian soldiers if they still believe the words, that “The West will stand by Kiev – whatever happens”. This promise already sounds empty of content because Ukraine is losing the war, writes Politico.
Ukrainian forces are running out of ammunition. Western delays in sending aid mean the country is dangerously short of something even harder to supply than shells: the fighting spirit needed to win. Morale among the troops is bleak, crushed by relentless bombing, lack of modern weapons and losses on the battlefield.
The country is headed for disaster. Even as President Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukraine is trying to find a way to hold on, military officers know more losses are inevitable this summer. The only question is how bad they will be. Vladimir Putin has probably never been closer to his goal.
If Western countries do not urgently step up to provide military aid to the attacked country, Ukraine as it currently exists will be a thing of the past.
The Ukrainians – from the soldiers in the trenches to the ministers in parliament – are disappointed and embittered by the actions (or rather the lack of actions) of the Western countries. President Volodymyr Zelensky made it clear: Ukraine will lose the war if the US Congress does not grant aid (the package, which has been blocked for months, is worth $60 billion).
Without a major shift in the supply of modern Western weapons and money, Ukraine will not be able to liberate the territories that Putin's forces now occupy. That would leave Putin free to prey on the wounded country in the coming months or years. Even if Russia can't finish off Ukraine, a partial victory would dent Kiev's hopes of joining the EU and NATO.
The consequences of such a scenario will be serious for the world. Putin will claim victory at home and, emboldened by the exposure of the West's weaknesses, may revive his broader imperial ambitions abroad. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are threatened.
Right now, Ukraine's most urgent need is for artillery shells - millions of them. In addition, Ukraine says it needs at least two dozen Patriot air defense systems to protect frontline troops and protect Kharkiv, the country's largest city after Kiev, which is under fierce missile and artillery attack for weeks. Fears are growing that Russia may soon target Ukraine's second city for a ground offensive.
The Ukrainian army expects more losses in the coming months. Oleksandr Sirsky, commander-in-chief of the ZSU, warned that the situation on Ukraine's eastern front has “significantly worsened”.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba recently said “give us the damn Patriots”, indicating Kiev's irritation with NATO's broken promises. Meanwhile, the army has said it needs 500,000 new soldiers, but Zelensky and the Ukrainian parliament dare not announce a large-scale mobilization.
An estimated 650,000 men of fighting age have left their country, most by crossing the border illegally. What would Putin do if Ukraine doesn't get the Western help it needs to win? “He would completely destroy everything. Everything," said Zelensky. Ukrainian cities will be turned into ruins, hundreds of thousands will die.