Western media continue to report that the latest package of US military aid to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all of its territory.
Supporters of the current package do not argue that it alone will allow Ukraine to liberate all occupied territory, as President Joe Biden signed the bill just two days ago.
US military aid is currently on its way to Ukraine and will take several weeks to reach frontline units and have a tangible impact on the battlefield.
This is stated in the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) daily analysis.
Ukrainian forces will first need to use the incoming US aid to stabilize the front lines and stop the continued Russian advance, especially in the directions of Avdeyevka and Chasov Yar, in the coming weeks. The scale and intensity of the projected Russian offensive operation in the summer of 2024, which is likely to begin in June, also remains unclear, and the Russian military command may be actively evaluating and revising plans for its summer offensive effort to better account for the confrontation equipped Ukrainian forces.
They will need to defend against a Russian summer offensive effort and prevent Russian forces from making significant operational progress during the summer months before Ukrainian forces are able to mount a counteroffensive operation later in 2024 or 2025. Ukrainian forces must also address ongoing manpower challenges by training new personnel, equipping new units and rehabilitating old units. The precise timetable for this effort, which is likely to play an important role in determining the timetable for Ukraine's future counteroffensive operations, is unclear.
ISW continues to assess that sufficient and consistent Western assistance will be critical to future Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts, although the US and the West will likely need to respond as Ukrainian military command determines the scope and focus of such operations and conveys Ukraine's needs to Western partners in the weeks and months leading up to future counteroffensive operations.
Ukraine's ability to regain all of its territory in the long term depends on numerous future decisions by the West, in the Kremlin and in Kiev, and any discussion that treats the prospects of Ukrainian victory or defeat as predetermined outcomes ignores how all parties involved could dynamically change the course of the war in Ukraine.
Public meetings between officials from Russia, Belarus, the People's Republic of China (PRC), Iran and North Korea have increased in recent days, with at least 10 high-level bilateral meetings between April 22 and 26, underscoring the deepening multilateral a partnership between them countries are building to oppose the West. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) defense ministers' meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan on April 26.
Shoigu met with National Defense Minister Dong Jun on the sidelines of the meeting and emphasized the "unprecedented" level of Russian-Chinese relations. He also met with Iran's Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani and stated that Russia is ready to expand Russian-Iranian military and military-technical cooperation. Dong and Ashtiani held a bilateral meeting and called for strengthening Sino-Iranian cooperation, including in the defense and military spheres.
Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin also met with Dong and Ashtiani at the April 26 SCO meeting.
The April 26 SCO meeting marked Iran's first meeting as an SCO member state after joining the organization in July 2023.
The SCO meetings are just the latest in a series of bilateral meetings between Russia, Belarus, China, Iran and North Korea. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister and Special Representative of the Russian President for the Middle East and African Countries Mikhail Bogdanov met with Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Ali Bagheri Khani in Moscow on April 26.
Secretary of the Security Council of Russia Nikolai Patrushev met with Politburo member of the Communist Party of China Chen Wenqing on April 23 in St. Petersburg and discussed strengthening cooperation between Russian and Chinese intelligence services.
Patrushev also met with Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian in St. Petersburg on April 24 and they signed a memorandum of understanding between the two countries' security councils.
A North Korean delegation led by Foreign Economic Relations Minister Yoon Jong-ho traveled to Iran on April 23.
Head of the Department of International Military Cooperation of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus Major General Valery Revenko met with the Deputy Minister of Defense of Iran and Rector of the Malek Ashtar University of Technology Mehdi Jafari on April 22 in Minsk.
While the details and outcomes of these various bilateral meetings are unclear, the apparent increase in their number and frequency is notable and demonstrates the group's increased willingness to publicly demonstrate its military and political cooperation in its competition and confrontation with the West.
Chinese officials said NATO was responsible for Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine amid meetings between Chinese officials and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on April 26. Blinken met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and said that China's support for the Russian defense industry was enabling Russia's military efforts and undermining European and transatlantic security.
Blinken noted that the PRC supplies Russia's defense industry with machinery, microelectronics, nitrocellulose (an intermediate used in the production of gunpowder and explosives) and other dual-use items, and warned that the US was prepared to act if the PRC continued to supports the Russian defense industry.
ISW has recently observed reports that Russia's defense industrial base continues to rely heavily on Chinese-made machine tool and electronics components.
China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said, possibly in response to Blinken, that Russia imports more than 60 percent of weapons components and dual-use items from the US and other Western countries.
Van added that NATO brings an "undeniable" responsibility for the "crisis in Ukraine" and that the PRC continues to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Wan's statement is sharper than previous PRC statements on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which have portrayed the PRC as an objective and impartial mediator for future peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Kremlin news outlet TASS framed the statements as taking over the " ;direct responsibility" about Russia's invasion of Ukraine for NATO. The Kremlin is likely to take advantage of the PRC's stronger rhetoric on the war in Ukraine to portray the PRC as supporting Russia's goals in Ukraine, as it has tried to do in the past.
Ukraine's Western partners continue to provide Ukraine with immediate and long-term military assistance, particularly for Ukraine's air defenses. The US Department of Defense announced on April 26 a new $6 billion military aid package for Ukraine as part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
The package includes Patriot air defense munitions, National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) munitions, High Mobility Artillery Missile Systems (HIMARS) munitions, artillery munitions and equipment to integrate Ukrainian and Western air defense systems. The US Department of Defense said the announcement marked the start of the "negotiating process" and the production and delivery schedule of these weapons is unclear at this time. Spanish publication El Pais reported on April 26 that Spain would send a "limited" number of Patriot missiles in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on April 26 at a Ramstein-style meeting that Ukraine needed long-range weapons and air defense systems and reported that Russian forces had used more than 9,000 guided bombs against Ukraine from the beginning of 2024
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin noted that many factors will determine the course of the battle.
But the Patriot is one of the few air defense systems capable of engaging Russian ballistic missiles and also hitting Russian fighter-bombers beyond the range of Russian bombers. ISW continues to assess that its absence is due to Ukraine's deteriorating air defense capabilities.
Zelensky said that although Russian forces have taken the initiative on the battlefield over the past six months, Ukrainian forces will still be able to "not only stabilize the front, but also advance".
The Ukrainian military has reportedly withdrawn US-supplied Abrams tanks. from the front lines in part because of the widespread threat of Russian drones and other strikes. The Associated Press (AP) reported on April 26, citing two unspecified US military officials, that Ukraine had removed the "Abrams" from the front lines in part because Russia's widespread use of drones has made it too difficult for Ukrainian forces to operate the Abrams without Russian forces detecting and striking the "Abrams" with drones.
Ukrainian drone operators recently told the Washington Post that the number of drones used by Russian and Ukrainian forces has made the battlefield "almost transparent", given that up to 100 Russian and Ukrainian reconnaissance and attack drones can operate simultaneously within a radius of 10 kilometers.
Any armored vehicles that Russian or Ukrainian forces might send to the front lines are visible to each other's reconnaissance drones, so Ukrainian forces are likely prioritizing efforts to protect the limited number of Abrams tanks they currently possess. All armored vehicles on the battlefield without active protection and anti-drone systems are highly vulnerable to enemy drone strikes, artillery and anti-tank guided missiles.
The Russian government has focused on Russia's ability to destroy Western-made weapons systems to portray Russian military technology as superior to Western designs. Russia will soon open an exhibition of captured Western equipment in Moscow and hand out military and monetary rewards to Russian soldiers who destroy Western armored vehicles.
Russian authorities are continuing their efforts to broaden the definition of persecuted anti-war sentiment to portray Russians who oppose the war in Ukraine as opponents of Russia itself. The Russian Ministry of Justice appealed to Russia's Supreme Court on April 26 to recognize the alleged "Anti-Russian separatist movement" and its "structural subdivisions" for an extremist organization, which will allow Russian authorities to prosecute Russians for belonging to, supporting, financing, or spreading the ideology of this movement.
Russian opposition media have largely responded to the call by noting that no such organization exists, and Russian authorities have previously designated other defunct organizations meant to encompass broader "social movements", such as "extremist" .
The Russian Ministry of Justice described the "Anti-Russian separatist movement" as "an international social movement aimed at destroying the multinational unity and territorial integrity of Russia". This indicates that the Russian authorities likely intend to use this new extremist designation to further prosecute anti-war sentiment among Russians and within occupied Ukraine.
The extremist designation of the "Anti-Russian separatist movement" also sets the informational conditions for further framing Russians who oppose the war or Russian imperialism as actually opposing the Kremlin and Russia itself.