Ukrainian officials reported that the forces are stabilizing the situation along the northern border in the Kharkiv region, and the pace of Russian offensive operations in the area continues to decrease. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that Ukrainian forces continue to inflict significant losses on Russian forces in the region.
This is stated in the analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The head of the military administration of the Kharkiv region, Oleg Sinegubov, said that they have regained positions in some areas. Sinegubov added that Russian forces are transferring reserves to the area.
Zelensky stressed in an interview with ABC News on May 16 that the situation is very serious and Kyiv cannot afford to lose the city of Kharkiv. According to him, Russia will not be able to capture the city of Kharkiv if the Ukrainian forces get two Patriot air defense systems to deploy in the area. In recent years, various missile strikes have been carried out to degrade Ukrainian defenses and force residents to leave the city.
Russia used airspace to strike Kharkiv Oblast due to bans on using Western-supplied systems to strike targets in Russia.
Ukrainian Interior Minister Igor Klymenko said Russian forces executed civilians and captured others in Vovchansk, preventing residents from evacuating. The detention and summary execution of civilians is a war crime and is emblematic of the behavior of Russian forces in all occupied Ukrainian territories. The United Nations (UN) reported in December 2023 that it had documented at least 142 cases of executions of Ukrainian civilians by Russian forces.
Russian military massacres such as the Bucha and Izyum massacres are examples of such atrocities. The Russian military has shown no signs of trying to contain them. Over the past year and a half, Russian forces have been gradually advancing near small towns that have been largely depopulated by the war. A relatively rapid Russian tactical advance into a populated settlement was immediately accompanied by the detention and execution of civilians. Russian forces committed war crimes in Bucha and Mariupol during the first months of the war. Russian attempts to seize large population centers such as the city of Kharkiv not only threaten Ukraine with significant operational failures, but also with war crimes and violations that accompany Russian occupation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin likely views Russia's relationship with the People's Republic of China (PRC) as crucial to his efforts to further mobilize the Russian economy and defense industry to support a protracted war in Ukraine. Putin arrived in Beijing and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 16, with the two leaders signing a series of documents designed to recognize and deepen their bilateral cooperation.
Putin and Xi signed a joint statement, several agricultural and environmental agreements, an agreement on infrastructure and engineering construction, and several media agreements.
The two emphasized bilateral trade and economic cooperation during their public speeches. Putin's delegation included several Russian officials and businessmen possibly involved in Putin's plans for Russia's defense industry. Among them were Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Secretary of the Security Council Sergey Shoigu, Head of the Office for Military-Technical Cooperation Dmitry Shugaev, founder of the Russian aluminum company RUSAL Oleg Deripaska, CEO of Rosneft Igor Sechin and CEO of The Russian Direct Investment Fund Kiril Dmitriev.
The Russian delegation probably aimed to expand cooperation that would facilitate the strengthening of economic ties between Russia and the PRC. The Economist reported on April 29 that Russia's defense industry is increasingly relying on China to provide dual-use goods, such as semiconductors and navigation equipment, to support weapons production.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said on May 1 that China's dual-use exports to Russia have helped Russia significantly increase its defense output, and that 70 percent of Russia's machinery and 90 percent of its microelectronics are from PRC.
The PRC has previously signaled concerns that its economic relationship with Russia could put PRC organizations at risk of secondary sanctions, and Putin is likely to aim to address those concerns as Russia's defense industry becomes increasingly dependent on the PRC .
Putin also used his meeting with Xi to promote popular Kremlin narratives, feigning interest in peace talks and a diplomatic solution to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Putin and Xi signed a joint statement on May 16 that mentioned Russia's support for China's proposed peace plan and possible future China-led talks to end the war in Ukraine.
The statement said both Russia and China were against any efforts that prolong or further escalate the war, and that both sides supported a "sustainable settlement" of the "crisis in Ukraine". Xi said during a joint press conference with Putin that China and Russia see a political settlement as the right way to resolve the situation in Ukraine.
ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin will continue to use any calls for peace talks to feign interest in talks in the hope of undermining Western support for Ukraine and prompting the West to force Ukraine into concessionary talks with Russia regarding Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Russian forces are reportedly able to conduct fixed-wing drone reconnaissance deep into the Ukrainian rear because of Ukraine's lack of anti-aircraft interceptors. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported on May 14 that Ukraine had to preserve its dwindling supply of surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), which allowed Russian reconnaissance drones to fly more freely in Ukraine's rear areas, including over Kharkiv City and optimization of the reconnaissance-fire complex (RFC) of the Russian forces.
RUSI said Ukraine's reduced air defense supplies have forced it to make increasingly difficult decisions between deploying air defense coverage of critical infrastructure in rear areas or forward areas, as ISW has repeatedly assessed.
p>Well-equipped Ukrainian forces had previously been able to limit Russian intelligence capabilities for most of a full-scale invasion.
Ukrainian forces reportedly carried out successful drone strikes against a Russian defense industrial plant in the city of Tula on the night of May 15-16. Ukrainian intelligence sources told several Ukrainian media outlets that the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR) carried out successful drone strikes against "Basalt" a defense industry plant that produces weapons and ammunition for the Russian military.
Footballs released on May 16 purportedly show the strike in the city of Tula. Russia's Defense Ministry (MoD) said on May 16 that Russian forces shot down two Ukrainian drones over the Tula region, and Basalt denied claims that any drones had hit its production facilities in the city of Tula.
Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure since March 2024 likely caused long-term damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure and repeated power outages. Ukraine's largest private energy operator DTEK reported power outages in Kyiv city and region on May 14 and said power outages happen without warning.
Ukrainian energy company Yasno said the Russian strikes were forcing Ukrainian power operators to carry out emergency outages to balance the power system. Ukrainian state-owned transmission operator Ukrenergo Supervisory Board member Yury Boyko said Ukraine could experience power outages that began on May 14 until August or September 2024. Ukraine's Energy Ministry said on May 16 that it had begun receiving emergency electricity from Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
DTEK warned in late March that more precise and concentrated Russian strikes were causing more damage to Ukrainian energy facilities than previous Russian attacks. Russian forces will likely continue to launch mass strikes to inflict long-term damage on Ukraine's energy infrastructure as degraded Ukrainian air defense capabilities continue until US-provided anti-aircraft missiles and other Western air defense assets arrive at scale.
Long-term damage to Ukraine's power grid, which generates constant power outages, threatens to limit Ukraine's efforts to expand its defense industrial base.
A Russian insider, who previously accurately reported on the changes in the Russian military command, claims that senior officials of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) are vying for the post of Chief of the General Staff. The inside source said on May 14 that unknown Russian deputy defense ministers and heads of main directorates in the Russian Ministry of Defense are likely to be in the running to become the chief of the Russian General Staff, a position Army General Valery Gerasimov has held since 2012.
The insider said unspecified individuals were prioritizing the appointment of disgraced Wagner-linked army general Sergei Surovikin as chief of the General Staff, but it was too early to determine whether Gerasimov's tenure as chief would expire of the General Staff. The insider claims that there are three main "centers of power" in the Russian MoD. It is reported that the "preservation group" consists of Russian Deputy Ministers of Defense Ruslan Tsalikov, Colonel-General Viktor Goremikin and Nikolai Pankov. The "blocking group" consists of Russian Deputy Defense Ministers Colonel-General Alexander Fomin, Army General Pavel Popov, Colonel-General Yuriy Sadovenko, Alexei Krivoruchko and Tatiana Shevtsova - all of whom the insider said are likely to resign.
The insider did not clarify the names "preservation group" and "block group". The inside source claims that the "bastions" in the Russian Ministry of Defense include Gerasimov and the Deputy Ministers of Defense Colonel-General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and Lieutenant-General Andrey Buliga. An inside source claims that Buliga is likely to resign. ISW cannot independently verify any of the internal source's claims. Several Russian bloggers and insiders said on May 13 that Tsalikov and Krivoruchko submitted their resignations to former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu a week before Putin removed Shoigu as defense minister.
Kremlin and Georgian officials promote established Kremlin intelligence operations that claim the West is organizing protests against the law on "foreign agents" of Georgia to overthrow the Georgian government. Several officials from the ruling party "Georgian Dream" said that Iceland, Lithuania and Estonia were taking "hostile" steps and are trying to topple the Georgian government after the foreign ministers of Iceland, Lithuania and Estonia visited protests in Tbilisi against the law on "foreign agents" on May 15.
Turkey and Russia are reportedly using European Union (EU) sanctions provisions to export Russian oil to the EU, allowing Russia to continue receiving significant oil revenues to finance its military efforts in Ukraine. Politico reported on May 15 that the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research, the Center for the Study of Democracy and Politico's independent reporting indicated that Turkey may be concealing the origin of Russian oil to use EU sanctions provisions that allow "mixed " oil containing certain proportions of Russian oil that have undergone a "substantial transformation" to enter the EU.
Politico said that imports of Russian oil at the Turkish ports of Ceyhan, Marmara Ereglisi and Mersin increased significantly between February 2023 and February 2024, while oil exports from these three ports to the EU also increased significantly. — "strong". This shows that Turkey is "rebranding" the oil with a Turkish "certificate of origin". This scheme is likely to have generated up to three billion euros in revenue for Russia between February 2023 and February 2024 from these three ports alone.
Russia reportedly launched a satellite as part of its program to develop a nuclear anti-satellite weapon in the weeks before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, possibly as part of Russia's preparations for a future confrontation with NATO. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on May 16 that US officials said Russia had launched a satellite into space as part of its program to develop nuclear anti-satellite weapons on February 5, 2022 - 19 days before the war in Ukraine began .
US officials reportedly said the satellite launched by Russia did not contain a nuclear weapon, but did contain components of a new weapons system Russia is developing to destroy hundreds of satellites in low Earth orbit, particularly in areas where there are many US government and commercial satellites, including SpaceX's Starlink satellites.