The Washington Times: Attack on Taiwan? China's military has no way of surprising the Pentagon

Increased activity in China's transportation network will provide U.S. military planners with clear indications of future military action against Taiwan. This became known during a meeting of a committee of the US Congress, writes The Washington Times.

Private threat intelligence analyst Devin Thorne says US analysts will be able to identify any preparations for a major conflict against Taiwan through military mobilization activity in China.

According to him, the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) logistics report described the transportation requirements for an attack on Taiwan, talking about three thousand trains, 1 million vehicles, 2,100 flights of aircraft, 15 battalions of oil pipelines and more than 8,000 marines. the course.

The analyst added that by 2025, the PLA hopes to complete the loading of outgoing materials within 24 hours and the loading of outgoing brigades and regiments within four hours. Other signals would be an increase in military deployment closer to the coast along the Taiwan Strait, likely months before a military strike.

"The problem is that most clear signals of imminent threat in this sector are likely to appear relatively close in time (probably a few months) before aggression begins,” says Thorne.

In addition, the PLA's strategic documents stated that an aerial attack on Taiwan would involve secret preparations and the use of deception tactics. However, Thorne believes that the scale of the amphibious campaign will make it very difficult to cover up these activities.

In turn, preparations for an attack are likely to include mass disruption of civilian passenger and cargo flights, as well as anomalies in the movement of civilian ships.

"It is possible to observe the relatively limited number of military and civilian airfields that could be used as landing points for a campaign against Taiwan (approximately 33 airfields, depending on the criteria applied) for such unusual activity. It is also likely that Chinese social media users will document military transport activity and other signs of mobilization in their communities, although authorities are likely to take steps to prevent this, Thorne said.

The analyst added that Chinese Communist Party officials are likely to order a general mobilization in the event of war three to four months before the invasion of Taiwan begins. At the same time, the demobilization of PLA troops will be stopped a year before the invasion.