Alexander Lukashenko is unlikely to go to war against Ukraine, but he can, to please Putin, distract and stretched the Ukrainian troops. This is stated in a new report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
„The build-up of Belarusian troops along the Ukrainian border is intended to distract and stretch Ukrainian forces along a wider front line, analysts say. However, the Belarusian dictator fears for his regime and is unlikely to enter the war against Ukraine because he could be ousted from power.
American analysts added that they believe it is unlikely that Belarusian troops will invade Ukraine. “A Belarusian invasion of Ukraine, or even Belarusian military involvement in the war, would impair Lukashenko's ability to defend his regime, making it highly unlikely. A war with Ukraine will weaken his regime or may sharply increase internal Belarusian discontent”, the analysis says.
Belarusian presidential elections are due to be held in February 2025, and Lukashenko wants to maintain control of public sentiment as well as influence over the military to quell any election-related protests.
Ukraine has accused neighboring Belarus, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, of massing troops along their shared border and warned Minsk against "hostile actions". The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that the troop build-up was taking place in the Gomel region "under the guise of maneuvers". "We warn the Belarusian authorities not to make a tragic mistake under the pressure of Moscow, we call on the armed forces to stop their hostile actions and withdraw from the border of Ukraine," said the statement of the ministry in Kyiv.