Studies show that The race for the White House has become much closer since incumbent Joe Biden's decision to drop out, but the prospect of Donald Trump winning a second term as US president remains very real. Such a possibility would have consequences far beyond the American territory, with analysts suggesting that it could be decisive for the war in Ukraine, writes Sky News, quoted by FOCUS, referring to a commentary by two analysts for Foreign Policy.< /p>
And Phillips P. O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews, and Edward Stringer, a retired air marshal and senior fellow at the British think tank Policy Exchange, believe that Trump's victory could to leave Europe "in a bind" - and urge the continent's leaders to begin planning for that outcome.
"By the end of January 2025, the continent's most important partner - the United States - could be led by former President Donald Trump, who said he would encourage Russia to do "whatever it wants" with European countries that don't do what he wants: spend more on defense," they wrote in an article for Foreign Policy magazine.
"The previous Trump administration strained transatlantic relations, and his next election will almost certainly be even worse. Freed from the influence of traditional Atlantic Republicans who filled his cabinet during his first term, a second Trump term would face fewer obstacles to carrying out his threats.
The two point out that Trump has warned that he will immediately end all US aid to Kiev and demand a quick end to the war, which would likely require Ukraine to cede a significant portion of its territory to Russia.
"And this may just be the beginning,", they continue.
"Trump has long questioned the value of NATO, so it is not out of the question that he will withdraw the US commitment to defend Europe.
"He could enact analyst Sumantra Maitra's widespread proposal for a ``dormant NATO,'' in which the U.S. military would provide logistical support as a last resort but leave all other responsibilities for NATO's defense to Europe , or to follow in the footsteps of French President Charles de Gaulle, who in 1966 removed France from the military command of NATO (but not from the alliance itself)."
They say Trump could act quickly, threatening never to order US troops to fight in Europe.
"As a result, Europe will be forced to face a security crisis on a scale not seen since World War II,", they write.
After discussing the possible strategy for Europe should this situation materialize - including speculation about which countries might step in to replace US military leadership - the authors argue that countries must act urgently to prepare.
"Time is a precious commodity in war. And today, when war is on its doorstep and the US threatens to push European security to its most precarious point in decades, the continent is losing it, they claim.
"European countries should have started planning for the possibility of Trump's return at least a year ago, when the high probability of such an outcome became apparent, giving themselves more time to prepare.
"Instead, European governments stuck their heads in the sand. If Trump is elected, this denial will have to end. European NATO countries will be forced to act to secure the continent and protect the freedom of its citizens. It is far better that they approach this difficult task as rationally and foresight as possible than in a chaotic rush."