Kurt Volker was the permanent representative of the USA to NATO during the administration of George W. Bush, after which he worked for two years as a special representative of the State Department for Ukraine on during the presidency of Donald Trump. Before DV, he predicted how US relations with Russia and Ukraine would change if Trump became president again, as well as what Ukrainian President Zelensky achieved during his visit to the US.
DV: In your opinion, was Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to the USA a success?
K. Volcker: I don't think this visit was very successful. The main goal of the Ukrainians is for President Biden's administration to allow them to use American weapons to strike targets inside Russia. In the end, it was not announced that such permission had been obtained. And President Zelensky arrived in the midst of the election campaign – very inopportune time, especially if you are coming in connection with support for Ukraine.
At the same time, Zelensky, in my opinion, had a very productive meeting with the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. After her, Trump spoke about the need for a just peace for Ukraine, which is a big step forward, since until then he only talked about peace and ending the war. Still, it would have been wiser not to arrive in the midst of a stormy political season and not to allow the topic of Ukraine to become a bargaining chip in inter-party discussions.
DV: What do you think, whether the US – regardless of who wins the election – yet at some point they will allow Ukraine to use the provided weapon to strike targets inside Russia?
K. Volcker: My guess is that before or shortly after the election, the Biden administration will begin to lift those restrictions. It may do so without loud announcements, but it will begin to do so. And it is likely that the decisions will be made on a specific occasion, gradually.
If he defeats Trump, it is possible that he will go even further. He will tell the Ukrainians: “You can borrow as much money as you need if you will use it to buy American weapons. Fight! But on one condition – when Putin is ready to end the war, you will end it too”. At the same time, he will put pressure on Putin and tell him: “We will give the Ukrainians as many weapons as they need, we will ensure Ukraine's entry into NATO. End the war!“.
DV: Do you think that any future US administration in the next four years will be of the opinion that Ukraine should get closer to NATO?
K. Volker: Yes, I think so. The new administration, whoever it is, would do well to see this as an integral part of the plan to end the war in Ukraine. However, in my opinion, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans are ready for this. But they are gradually approaching this position. I think that sooner or later they will come to the following conclusion: it must first end the war, then, in order to secure peace, it must be accepted into NATO. Then there will be sustainable peace and conditions for the effective containment of Russia.
DV: And why, in your opinion, does NATO not react, given that Russian drones are constantly violating the airspace of the EU? How should one act in such cases?
K. Volcker: The fact that NATO did not react is, in my opinion, unacceptable – with its dangerous actions, Russia constantly poses a threat to the population of the Alliance countries. I would very much like NATO to step up its air defenses. It is necessary to have an extended air defense zone in Eastern Poland and in Romania of 150-200 km. We must not allow dangerous objects to fly into these areas – they must be taken down. This must be agreed with the Ukrainians, because it is also about their airspace. But I'm sure they'll agree.
DV: Western publications recently wrote that the lack of reaction is related to the fear that Russia will start retaliating in response. Do you think that the fears of escalation on the part of Russia are justified?
K. Volcker: There is a very important point here – Russia's threats to use nuclear weapons. Western leaders have such concerns, which is a big mistake! Russia is restrained not because of our restraint – she would like to defeat Ukraine right now. It fails, but not because Moscow is “holding back”. Authorization to attack targets inside Russia could significantly change the situation. Otherwise, Russia will simply continue to do what it is doing now.
As for nuclear weapons, Russia is refraining from such a move not as a result of our inaction, but because of the possible consequences of such a step. If they use a nuclear weapon, there will be a retaliatory strike against the powers that used it – Russia will receive a firm response.
DV: Putin recently announced his readiness to change Russia's nuclear doctrine so that a retaliatory strike could also be carried out against a country that does not possess nuclear weapons. Do you take his words seriously?
K. Volcker: No. I believe that Putin said this to influence the policy of the West, to force it to stop helping Ukraine and to prevent Kiev from using long-range weapons systems. Because – what would stop Putin from deciding to go nuclear if he wanted to? He is not bound by doctrine – to him it's just a piece of paper. It is precisely the potential consequences of the use of nuclear weapons that hold him back, which, as he understands, will hit Russia very hard.
Author: Konstantin Eggert