For decades, Moldova has been out of the international spotlight. The small southeastern European country is poor, ruled by corrupt elites and torn by internal conflict with pro-Russian separatists. The so-called "Transnistrian conflict" began in 1992. It was Russia's first military operation against a former Soviet republic.
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine changed everything - suddenly Moldova became an important part of European security policy and there was even talk that the country was "Putin's next target after Ukraine". Odessa is only 60 km from the separatist Transnistrian Republic in eastern Moldova, where Russia has stationed several thousand troops for years.
If Moscow manages to secure a corridor to Transnistria by land, it could easily take over Moldova, which is practically unable to defend itself militarily. This potential scenario has motivated the EU to support Moldova more in the past two and a half years. The country is a candidate for membership in the Community from June 2022, just like Ukraine. The EU has also significantly increased its financial assistance to Chisinau.
Maia Sandu - against corruption and for the European Union
Regardless of the Russian threat, presidential elections will be held this Sunday. This is probably the most important vote since the country became independent. The current president of the country, Maia Sandu, is running for a new term. Several pro-Russian candidates are facing her. At the same time, a referendum will be held in which Moldovans will decide whether plans to join the European Union should be enshrined in the country's constitution.
Moldova has long been governed by a small majority of pro-Russian forces in the country. Economist Maia Sandu won the 2020 elections not so much because of her pro-European positions, but mainly because she continues to fight corruption and has a reputation for being extremely honest. Years ago, she also paid for her political beliefs with an attempted poisoning, the investigation into which is still ongoing.
Thanks to Sandu's reformist policies, sentiment in Moldova is now much more clearly in favor of the EU. The president is expected to win another term, but in all likelihood only in a runoff. According to recent polls, Sandu has about 36 percent support. The other three candidates - Alexandru Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general supported by the pro-Russian Socialist Party, Moldovan-Russian businessman Renato Usati, and Irina Vlah, a former governor of the autonomous Gagauzia, do not speak out directly against EU integration. However, they express a variety of criticisms of Brussels and call the upcoming referendum a "false election trick". In addition, they all promote a partnership with Russia, which in itself excludes EU integration.
Russia is discredited
Russia has long been not as popular among Moldovans as it was a few decades ago. Moscow has been blackmailing and exhausting the small country economically for years, for example by suspending gas supplies and imposing sanctions on the export of Moldovan fruit and wine. Russia's aggressive war in Ukraine was probably the last straw for Moldovans. Only in the Gagauzia region is there still a pro-Russian majority.
Since 2023, the Republic of Moldova has managed to completely free itself from Russian gas supplies. Neighboring countries Ukraine and Romania, as well as the EU, have helped the country logistically and financially, giving it the opportunity to store gas purchased on the world market. In 2025, the country will also stop electricity supplies from the separatist Transnistrian region. This will remove all the economic levers that Russia has managed to use to subjugate Moldova politically.
Hybrid war is in full swing
At this time, however, the Russian hybrid war against Moldova is in full swing - mainly through propaganda and disinformation campaigns. One of the people behind these actions is Moldovan-Israeli businessman Ilan Shor, responsible for the theft of about one billion euros from Moldovan banks in 2014. He was sentenced to 15 years in prison for this, but in 2019 he fled the country - first for several years in Israel, and then to Russia. Shor is on the US and EU sanctions lists and has an arrest warrant issued by Interpol. Russia refuses to extradite him to the Republic of Moldova.
The businessman financed pro-Russian and anti-European demonstrations and campaigns. He initially founded a political party in his own name, which was briefly represented in parliament, and later several "clone" parties, which were subsequently banned. However, Shor continues to finance social media campaigns that spread outrageous lies about Maia Sandu or the EU - for example, that Moldovan children will have to undergo gender reassignment surgery after the country joins the Community.
End of the Transnistrian conflict?
If sociological surveys are to be believed, this propaganda no longer affects most Moldovans. There is one reason - many of them work in EU countries and know that these claims are lies. Among other things, Transnistria will soon be able to rely only on the official authorities in Chisinau, as Ukraine will cut off Russian gas supplies to the breakaway self-proclaimed republic on January 1, 2025. This may mean that Transnistria will have to take steps to re-integrate into Moldova.
Authors: Keno Ferzek | Vitali Kalugareanu