Patriarch Kirill, head of the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church (ROC MP), spoke about the continuing social and ideological divisions in Russian society during a speech on October 31. At the same time, he repeated standard justifications for the war in Ukraine. Kirill offered his assessment during a meeting of the Bureau of the Presidium of the World Russian People's Council, which include ethno-religious conflict, migration and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Kyril commented indignantly that while the war in Ukraine is "the most pressing threat" for the Russian state, some people in Russian society "prefer to ignore" what is happening on the front line and the struggles of people who live in the closer Russian border areas to the war zone. He criticizes Russians who are unwilling to "give up their personal comfort" and rely on "frivolous entertainment" to distract them from the reality of war.
The rebuke suggests the Kremlin may be increasingly concerned about Russian public support for the war. Recent opinion polls show that support is wavering, although Russian citizens remain broadly supportive of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Studies show that most Russians, especially those who have not personally lost family members in Ukraine, are rather apathetic if they are not personally affected.
Most Russians remain opposed to conducting a second wave of mobilization.
Kyril also highlighted the growing trend of brutality and cruelty in the Russian army and tried to explain this trend as the emergence of "neo-pagan" cult.
Russian authorities also continue to identify conflict between ethnic Russians and minority groups as a critical issue. Cyril identifies "problems with migrants" and ethno-religious tensions as key internal threats to the Russian state.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev noted on October 31 that Russia needs to address its migration problems. Medvedev proposed introducing "digital migrant profiles" that would reportedly allow Russian authorities to stop foreigners at any time. ISW has reported at length on the balance Putin is trying to strike between satisfying his ultra-nationalist pro-war electorate, which harbors extreme anti-immigrant sentiment, and his practical need to use migrant labor both economically and militarily.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his North Korean counterpart Choe Son-hui in Moscow on November 1, pledging North Korea's support for Russia amid updated Western reports on the number of North Korean troops stationed in Russia.< /p>
Lavrov stressed that Russia and North Korea share "respect and reverence" to their shared history and stated that Russian-North Korean relations are developing "at an accelerated pace in terms of the qualitative level of interaction in all areas".
Choe claims that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un instructed North Korea to support the "holy war" of Russia against Ukraine until Russia wins.
Choe's reference to the concept of "holy war" against Ukraine is notable because the Russian Orthodox Church uses parallel language to rhetorically justify Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine as an existential and civilizational struggle—a struggle in which North Korea has now willingly joined.
Choue's visit to Moscow comes amid reports that North Korean troops are already deployed in the Kursk region and will soon go into battle alongside Russian forces. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken held a joint press conference with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun on October 31. Austin estimated that 8,000 North Korean troops were in the Kursk region and would entered combat against Ukrainian forces in the "coming days".
Austin said Russian forces have trained North Korean troops how to use artillery systems, operate drones and conduct basic tactical infantry maneuvers.
North Korean troops are unlikely to present Russia with a long-term solution to its manpower problems, despite Chou's comments about Pyongyang's indefinite commitment to Russia's military effort. Austin reported that Russian forces were suffering over 1,200 casualties per day (or about 36,000 casualties per month), and recent US estimates put Russian recruitment at between 25,000-30,000 new soldiers per month. This means that Russia is just worried about replacing its current 1:1 frontline loss rate.
The 8,000 North Korean soldiers reported to be preparing to go into battle in the Kursk region represent about a week's worth of casualties across the front line. North Korea has sent about 12,000 troops to Russia.
It remains unclear exactly how Russia intends to use North Korean manpower, but the commitment of North Korean troops to the type of highly exhausting offensive operations that Russia is pursuing is very likely to result in high levels of North Korean casualties.
ISW recently assessed that North Korea likely decided to enter the war on behalf of Russia in order to gain valuable combat experience in modern warfare, but noted that the way the Russian command uses North Korean troops in combat will affect the ability of North Korean forces to meaningfully internalize and disseminate combat experience.
If North Korean troops face the same casualty rates as Russian forces, then the battlefield lessons that Pyongyang hopes to learn will be undermined, and Kim is unlikely to commit his forces to facing such battlefield losses indefinitely.
The US Department of Defense announced a new tranche of $425 million in military aid to Ukraine on November 1. The new tranche, which was drawn from the Defense Department's stockpile, includes Stryker armored personnel carriers (APCs); munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS); Stinger man-portable air defense system (MANPADS) missiles; air-to-ground munitions; HIMARS ammunition; 105 mm and 155 mm artillery ammunition; Tube-launched, optically-tracked, guided-by-wire (TOW) missiles; Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) equipment and munitions; and Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems.
The package also includes small arms and ammunition, medical equipment and other equipment. U.S.-provided equipment, specifically Stryker armored personnel carriers, could assist Ukrainian forces in equipping or equipping new or existing Ukrainian brigades, possibly alleviating some of the burdens Ukrainian officials have previously identified in equipping new Ukrainian brigades.< /p>
In recent days, Ukrainian forces have made little progress north of Suja in Russia's Kursk region. Ukraine has also carried out drone strikes on Russian infrastructure, with the Russian defense complex reporting 83 drones downed.
In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces continue their offensive operations in Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, attempting to establish control over key points along the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremenna line. There is also intense fighting in the Donetsk region, especially in the direction of Chasiv Yar, where Russian forces are conducting daytime attacks, but without significant progress. In the region of Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo, Russian sources claim small movements of their forces, but there is no confirmation from independent sources.
On the Southern Front, in the Zaporozhye region, limited fighting continues, and in the Kherson region, Russian forces seek to defend strategic positions.
Russian forces have also been carrying out intensive missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, with Ukrainian air defenses downing 31 drones in various areas, including Kiev and Odessa. Damage was caused to residential buildings and businesses, as well as to a fire station in Odessa.