The birth rate in Germany is falling. According to data from the Institute for Economic Research (ifo), it is currently 1.35 children per woman, while in 2021 it was 1.58 children per woman. The decline is more pronounced in eastern Germany than in the western federal states.
According to data from the Federal Statistical Office, 392,000 children were born in Germany between January and July 2024 - three percent fewer than in the same period in 2023. This confirms the downward trend since 2021, when 795,500 children were born in Germany. The peak years were between 2016 and 2021 with over 800,000 births - then there were more than nine births per 1,000 inhabitants. Now this figure has dropped to 8.2.
Significant fluctuations in the birth rate always lead to long-term changes. First of all, this affects the number of places needed in kindergartens and schools. In the longer term, this also affects the workforce, as well as the replenishment of pension funds. Last but not least, the low birth rate is one of the reasons for the need to import labor (forced immigration).
The difference between East and West
The ifo Institute pays special attention to one detail: the birth rate in the eastern German states is falling even faster than in the western ones. Nationwide, the number of births fell by almost 13 percent from 2021 to 2023. In the eastern German states, however, the decline was as much as 17.5 percent. This is in line with the statistically proven trend that more young women than young men move from eastern to western Germany for better career prospects or living conditions.
There is a simple explanation for the decline in the overall number of births: the number of women of childbearing age in German society is falling overall. But this is not enough to explain the seriousness of the situation. Statistics show that another reason is the lower fertility rate per woman.
"The coronavirus crisis, the outbreak of war in Ukraine and the subsequent decline in real incomes due to high inflation have apparently led many young families to postpone any plans to have children for the time being," Joachim Ragnitz, deputy director of the ifo branch in Dresden, told DW. However, these reasons are only assumptions and cannot be statistically proven.
The economist Ragnitz explains that various factors influence the decision, including weighing the costs and benefits, as well as one's own life plans. According to him, one child means an expense of around 180,000 euros for a family. Couples or families are therefore faced with a decision that will have an effect for many years to come, and the task of politicians is to "maximize the benefits and reduce the costs", the expert points out.
Old political disputes
The question of the appropriate measures has been discussed in Germany for decades. The debate includes forms of institutional support, for example through comprehensive childcare, a better work-life balance and higher child benefits. Calculations have been made repeatedly, including by the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, according to which family policy benefits cost German taxpayers up to 200 billion euros per year. This includes child benefits and tax-free child benefits, as well as investment in education.
According to the ifo expert, there is a need to change society's attitude towards children. He also gives a specific example: "Some hotels advertise that they do not have children. Behind this lies the fundamental image of children as troublemakers," Ragnitz points out. That is why society as a whole needs to ask itself how it treats children and families.
Regardless of whether politicians contribute something to this, for example through specific measures in the field of family policy, a fundamental change in public attitudes will not come quickly. "Regardless of what steps are taken, change can only be achieved in the very long term," the expert adds.
Author: Christoph Strak