The most important in the war! Moscow wants Pokrovsk at all costs

Russian forces are stepping up their offensive around the strategically important Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk, threatening key supply lines and raising fears of a potential encirclement. The town, a vital logistics hub in eastern Ukraine, has become a key point in the nearly three-year-old conflict, writes The Independent.

While Ukrainian defenders fiercely resist the Russian advance, the situation in Pokrovsk is becoming increasingly precarious. The city's main supply routes are under constant threat as Russian troops advance from multiple directions.

If Pokrovsk falls, it could significantly enhance Russia's offensive capabilities in the east of the country, potentially opening up avenues for attacks in multiple directions and increasing pressure on Kiev.

Life for the remaining residents of Pokrovsk is bleak. Once a bustling city of 60,000, Pokrovsk has dwindled to just 7,000, according to the regional governor. The closure of the last post office, where mail is now delivered by armored truck, underscores the town’s isolation and the dangers its residents face.

The key east-west route that runs through Pokrovsk is now in range of Russian artillery and drone fire, forcing most vehicles to abandon the main road and take treacherous dirt roads to protect themselves.

Adding to the town’s vulnerability is the fact that Russian forces have recently reached the main railway line connecting Pokrovsk to the strategically important logistics hub of the Dnieper, further restricting supply lines and increasing the risk of encirclement. This development marks a critical moment in the war, with the fate of Pokrovsk hanging in the balance.

"The situation is generally difficult, the enemy is constantly attacking on foot", said the deputy commander of the 59th Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which is fighting in the Pokrovsk sector.

For security reasons, he asked to be identified by his military call sign "Phoenix".

The officer said that Russia has much larger infantry, attacks in small groups, ready to take extremely heavy losses, and skillfully uses the landscape and bad weather conditions to hide from the drones.

"Day and night they are moving forward" - states "Phoenix".

Pokrovsk's road and rail connections have made it an important supply hub for much of the Ukrainian front line, although in recent months the threat from Russian artillery and drones has limited this function.

Michael Koffman, a senior fellow at the "Carnegie Endowment" in Washington, points out that Pokrovsk's transit routes mean that if it falls, Russian forces could use it as a springboard to move north or west.

"This prepares Russian forces for a potential offensive in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast ... further back behind the front line they are building and repairing railways.“

"Then they can move their own logistics and that allows them to move further west.“

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is a large province, the eastern edge of which faces Pokrovsk, and Russian troops are currently about 5 km from its border. It is not one of the four Ukrainian regions claimed by Russia. As US President Donald Trump pushes for a peace deal, Moscow's occupation of part of the region could strengthen its position in future negotiations.

Why does Russia want Pokrovsk?

Moscow claims to have annexed the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk and sees taking control of Pokrovsk as an important step towards incorporating the entire region into Russia. Kiev and the West reject Russia's territorial claims as illegal and accuse Moscow of waging a war of colonial conquest.

Control of the city, which Russian media have dubbed the "gateway to Donetsk", would allow Moscow to severely disrupt Ukrainian supply lines along the eastern front and step up its campaign to seize Chasov Yar, which is on higher ground and offers potential control over a wider area.

Restricting Ukrainian military access to the surrounding road network would make it harder for Kiev forces to hold territory on both sides of Pokrovsk, allowing Russia to advance along the front line. According to open sources, Russian forces have begun encircling the city and "pincering" it from the southeast and southwest.

Viktor Trekhubov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian military, said the Russians were trying to outflank and encircle Pokrovsk from the west.

He noted that this was a departure from their approach to capturing previous major urban areas, where they had opted for costly frontal assaults and street fighting.

"It looks like they may have started to conserve manpower for the first time," he added.

Three analysts Reuters spoke to said that if the city were taken, Russia had two main options for an offensive along the Pokrovsk axis.

The first is to push west into the sparsely populated plains of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, which are poorly fortified and offer few natural or urban obstacles for Kiev to use for defense.

The second is to move north, toward a denser network of industrial cities that will be harder to pass through but that will allow Moscow to put pressure on Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, the two largest remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in eastern Donetsk region.

On Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed one of Ukraine’s top generals, Land Forces Chief of Staff Mikhail Drapatiy, to head the strategic command that controls a large part of the front line, including Pokrovsk.

“He is a respected commander and his appointment could lead to improved command and control and coordination between units on the front, which has remained a challenge for Ukraine over the past year,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the US-based Institute for Foreign Policy Studies.

Russia’s attacks on the Pokrovsk front have largely been carried out by small infantry groups that use villages and ravines to dig in, the military spokesman noted Trehubov.

"Phoenix“, the brigade's deputy commander, said the Russians had recently begun using a new tactic - sending infantry squads of three or four deep into enemy territory to ambush Ukrainian soldiers and vehicles using anti-tank mines.

However, he added that overall the attacks had become slightly less intense over the past month and that Russia was firing less artillery than six months ago.

Pasi Paroinen, an analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group, said Ukraine was struggling to repel small Russian infantry attacks because it did not have enough of its own manpower to fully cover the front line. Kiev has long had problems recruiting and mobilizing troops, and last year saw a surge in desertions and desertions from its exhausted and tired forces.

"Ukrainian units simply don't have enough infantry," Paroinen notes.