Donald Trump's advisers have publicly and privately made proposals to end the war in Ukraine, some of which large parts of the country may be ceded to Russia in the foreseeable future.
The proposals of three key advisers, including Trump's future envoy for Russia and Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, have common elements, including dropping the possibility of Ukraine's membership in NATO, BTA clarifies.
Trump's advisers will try to force Moscow and Kiev to enter into negotiations, using the carrot and stick method, including cutting off military aid to Kiev if Kiev does not agree to talk and offering to increase aid to Ukraine if Russian President Vladimir Putin refused the talks.
Trump repeatedly promised on the campaign trail to end the nearly three-year-old conflict within 24 hours of taking office on Jan. 20, if not sooner, but has yet to say how he would accomplish that. Analysts and former national security officials express serious doubts that Trump can follow through on such a promise because of the complexity of the conflict.
Taken together, however, the statements from his advisers suggest the potential contours of Trump's peace plan.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who faces manpower shortages and mounting territorial losses, has indicated he may be open to the idea of talks. While still pushing for NATO membership, he said this week that Ukraine must find diplomatic solutions to regain some of the occupied territories.
But according to analysts and former US officials, Trump may find that Putin is unwilling to engage because he is the polar opposite of the Ukrainians and has more to gain if he continues to grab land.
"Putin is in no rush," said Eugene Rumer, a former top U.S. intelligence analyst on Russia who now works at the Carnegie Endeavor think tank. (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace).
He said the Russian leader has shown no willingness to back down from his terms for a truce and talks, including Ukraine giving up its NATO aspirations and handing over the four areas Putin has declared part of Russia but does not fully control - a request rejected by Kiev.
According to Rumor, Putin is likely to buy time, seize more territory and wait to see what concessions Trump can offer to bring him to the negotiating table, if any.
In May, Reuters reported that Putin was ready to end the war through an agreed ceasefire that recognized the current front lines but was prepared to continue fighting if Kiev and the West did not respond.
Russia now controls all of Crimea after unilaterally seizing it from Ukraine in 2014, and has since seized about 80% of Donbas - which includes Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts - as well as over 70% of Zaporozhye and Kherson Oblasts and small parts of Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions.
More than one plan
As of last week, Trump had not yet convened a central task force to draft a peace plan, according to four advisers who spoke on condition of anonymity. They say several advisers have presented their ideas in public forums, and in some cases to Trump.
Ultimately, a peace deal is likely to depend on direct personal engagement between Trump, Putin and Zelensky, advisers said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that "it is not possible to comment on individual statements without having an idea of the plan as a whole.
Trump spokeswoman Caroline Levitt noted that Trump said he would "do what it takes to restore peace and restore American power and deterrence on the world stage.
A Trump representative did not immediately respond to a follow-up question about whether the president-elect still plans to resolve the conflict within a day of taking office.
The Ukrainian government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
A former Trump national security official involved in the US transition process said there were three main proposals: Kellogg's, one from Vice President-elect J.D. Vance and another presented by Richard Grenell. the former acting chief of intelligence under Trump.
Kellogg's plan, co-authored with former National Security Council official Fred Fleitz and presented to Trump earlier this year, calls for a freeze on the current battle lines.
Kellogg and Fleitz did not respond to requests for comment. Their plan was first reported by Reuters.
Trump would deliver more US weapons to Kiev only if Ukraine agrees to peace talks. At the same time, he would have warned Moscow that he would increase US aid to Ukraine if Russia rejected the talks. Ukraine's membership in NATO will be postponed.
According to this proposal, Ukraine would also be offered US security guarantees, which could include an increase in arms supplies after a deal is concluded.
In an interview with the British "Radio Times" in June, Sebastian Gorka, one of Trump's future deputy national security advisers, said Trump told him he would force Putin to negotiate by threatening unprecedented arms shipments to Ukraine if Putin refused.
Gorka, who we reached by phone, called Reuters "fake news garbage" and declined to give further details.
JD Vance, who as a US senator opposed aid to Ukraine, made a different point in September.
He told Sean Ryan's podcast that the deal would likely include a demilitarized zone along existing front lines that would be "heavily fortified" to prevent further Russian incursions. According to his proposal, Kiev will be denied NATO membership at this stage.
Representatives for JD Vance did not make him available for comment, and he has not yet offered further details.
Grenell, Trump's former ambassador to Germany, advocated the creation of "autonomous zones" in Eastern Ukraine during a round table of "Bloomberg" in July, but did not elaborate. He also suggested that Ukraine's NATO membership is not in America's interest.
Grenell, who did not respond to a request for comment, has not yet been offered a position in the new administration, although Trump is still listening to his opinion on European affairs, a senior Trump foreign policy adviser told Reuters. That adviser said Grenell was one of the few people at the September meeting in New York between Trump and Zelensky.
There is likely to be a pushback
Elements of the proposals are likely to face pushback from Zelensky, who has made the invitation for NATO membership part of his own "Victory Plan", as well as from European allies and some US lawmakers, analysts and former national security officials.
Last week, Ukraine's foreign minister sent a letter to his NATO counterparts urging them to extend an invitation for membership at Tuesday's meeting of foreign ministers.
Some European allies have expressed willingness to increase aid to Ukraine, and US President Joe Biden continues to send weapons. This may cost Trump some effort to push Kiev to the negotiating table.
The Kellogg plan, which calls for increased aid to Ukraine if Putin does not come to the negotiating table, could face pushback in Congress, where some of Trump's closest allies oppose additional military aid to the eastern European country.
"I don't think anyone has a realistic plan to end this problem," said Rumer, a former US intelligence officer.