The end of Assad's regime, which lasted more than two decades, is a “strategic defeat for Moscow and throws the Kremlin into crisis as it looks for a way to preserve its strategic bases in Syria,”, the IIV wrote in its latest summary published last night. .
After the Islamist rebels captured major cities such as Aleppo, Hama and Homs in just a few days, they entered Damascus and announced the overthrow of Assad, and the capital was declared free.
„Russia's failure or decision not to support the Assad regime while the Syrian opposition offensive was rapidly gaining ground across the country will damage Russia's credibility as a reliable and effective security partner around the world. This, in turn, will have a negative impact on Putin's ability to gain support for his vision of a multipolar world”, says the IIV analysis.
The Washington-based think tank stressed that there is “serious evidence” that Russia is beginning to create the conditions for moving its military assets out of Syria, pointing out that Russian military bases in the country are not safe.
„Even if Russia were to continue to maintain some or all of its bases in Syria, it would be a major geopolitical loss for Moscow, as it would favor Syrian opposition groups that the Kremlin has in the past called terrorists,” it said. in the report.
Assad has resigned and left Syria, the Russian Foreign Ministry said yesterday, without giving details of the whereabouts of its former ally. Russia is in contact with the groups in Syria, the statement added. Since 2015 Moscow provided significant military support to the Assad regime.