Ukrainian strikes on military airfields in Russia and Russian air defense systems in the near rear areas may lead to a reduction in Russian air operations and cruise bomb strikes against Ukraine.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, in the first 12 days of December 2024, Russian forces launched a total of 431 aerial bombs, after reportedly launching 1,472 aerial bombs in the first 12 days of November 2024, and in all of November 2024. - a total of over 3,300 aerial bombs.
This was summarized in its daily analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Thus, Russian forces are currently on track to launch only a third of the total number of floating bombs they launched in November 2024.
On December 12, the Russian opposition news outlet "Agency" noted that Russian cruise missile strikes have significantly decreased since Ukraine launched its first strikes on Russia using Western-supplied long-range weapons systems in mid-November.
Ukrainian forces launched their first ATACMS strike on Russian territory on the night of November 18-19 and a Storm Shadow strike on Russian territory on the night of November 19-20, and Ukrainian General Staff data indicate that Russian forces began consistently launching fewer than 100 cruise missiles per day on November 22.
The threat of Ukrainian strikes on Russian airfields within ATACMS and Storm Shadow range could force the Russian military to base aircraft at airfields further inside Russia and complicate Russia's ability to launch cruise missile strikes on Ukraine.
From the end of October 2024 Ukrainian forces are also undertaking a concerted campaign to strike Russian radars and air defense systems in occupied Ukraine and near Russia's rear areas.
This campaign could degrade Russian air defense capabilities, especially over occupied Ukraine, to the point where Russian pilots are increasingly reluctant to operate and launch cruise bomb strikes on frontline areas and in the rear areas of Ukrainian cities.
The Ukrainian human rights organization Truth Hounds estimated in a recent report that Ukrainian forces have destroyed at least 33 Russian Su-34 fighter jets between February 2022 and and September 2024, and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) previously estimated that Russia has approximately 112 different Sukhoi fighter jets.
ISW is unable to confirm or verify the Truth Hounds report. The destruction of nearly 30% of Russia's Sukhoi aircraft, if true, could also affect Russia's ability to launch cruise bomb strikes against Ukraine, although it is unclear when these losses occurred relative to the recent decline in cruise bomb attacks.
Russia continues to advance near Pokrovsk and Ugledar.