Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has categorically rejected the two proposals that the team of the newly elected US President Donald Trump in early November 2024 was reportedly considering as conditions for ending the war in Ukraine - postponing Ukraine's membership in NATO for 20 years and deploying European peacekeepers in Ukraine.
Lavrov explicitly confirms the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin from December 26 on the proposal from Trump on Ukraine.
This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Lavrov said that any agreements to end the war in Ukraine "must eliminate the root causes" about the Russian invasion of Ukraine and "to create a mechanism that would make it impossible to violate them".
In an interview on December 26, Lavrov claimed that the two main "root causes" of the war were the alleged violation of NATO obligations not to advance eastward and the "aggressive absorption" of areas near Russia's borders, and the Ukrainian government's alleged discrimination against ethnic Russians and the Russian language, media, and culture in Ukraine.
Lavrov's statements are part of ongoing statements by senior Russian officials that the Kremlin refuses to consider any compromises on Putin's demands since late 2021. and early 2022.
These demands include forcing Ukraine to become a permanently neutral state that will never join NATO, imposing strict limits on the size of the Ukrainian army, and removing the Ukrainian government.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has included his alleged policy of Ukrainian "denazification" in a new state strategy document on countering extremism, demonstrating how Putin continues to make the same demands for the removal of the Ukrainian government that he made in 2022, when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. On December 28, Putin signed a new strategy for countering extremism in Russia.
Russia signed the last iteration of such a strategy in 2020.
In the 2024 strategy for the first time, "Russophobia" is mentioned, which the document defines as "unfriendly, prejudiced and hostile" attitude and "discriminatory actions" towards Russian citizens, language and culture by countries unfriendly to Russia.
In the 2024 document, unlike the 2020 version, Ukraine is also listed as a major source of extremism and is accused of spreading neo-Nazi ideas.
The documents state that Russia must "eliminate" the source of extremist threats coming from Ukraine.
In February 2022, when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Putin stated that Russia was pursuing "denazification" of Ukraine - an attempt to justify the removal of the legitimate, democratically elected government of Ukraine.
Putin has been making similar statements recently, repeating his refusal to consider compromises on his demands from late 2021 and early 2022.
The document's mention of "Russophobia" and "discrimination" against Russian citizens, language, and culture also coincides with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's recent statement that such alleged discrimination by the current Ukrainian authorities is a "root cause" of Russia's war against Ukraine, which must be addressed in future negotiations.
The Kremlin is likely to use this new strategic document to justify its calls for the removal of the Ukrainian government as "anti-extremist" measures.
The strategy document also included points that will resonate with Russia's pro-war ultranationalist community, likely as part of the Kremlin's efforts to appease and win the favor of this key constituency.
The document claims that migrants in Russia are carrying out illegal activities that contribute to the spread of extremism in unspecified federal subjects of Russia.
The document calls on Russia to tighten its migration policy, including by combating "propaganda events" held in migrants' housing. The document also calls on Russia to adjust educational programs in the South Caucasus and Central Asia to prevent the spread of Russophobia.
The Russian ultranationalist community of military bloggers has repeatedly called on Russia to introduce stricter migration policies and complained about "Russophobia" in former Soviet countries such as Kazakhstan.
ISW continues to believe that Putin must cater to his xenophobic and ultranationalist constituents - some of the staunchest supporters of Russia's war in Ukraine - while balancing Russia's need for migrant labor for its economy and military.
Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service reports a severe labor shortage in Russia, exacerbated by military mobilization. There is a shortage of 1.5 million workers, with the construction and IT sectors most affected.
Russian forces continued their offensives in the Kursk region on December 28 and 29, but without any confirmed successes. According to a Russian military blogger, on December 29, Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Kruglenkoye. Ukrainian military observer Yuri Butusov reports that Russian forces are using fewer armored vehicles in the region, but have stepped up sabotage and reconnaissance operations. Elements of the Russian 11th Airborne Brigade have been reported in the Cherkasskaya Konopelka area, ISW reports.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that on December 28 and 29, Russian forces fired six S-300/S-400 missiles from the Belgorod region, targeting Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region and the neighboring Sumy region in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, an internal source in Russia claims that members of the Chechen battalion "Zapad-Akhmat" attacked a Russian military checkpoint in the Golovchinoye area after a dispute over vehicle documents. The incident highlights tensions between Chechen units and regular Russian forces.
Russian forces are continuing ground attacks northeast of Kharkiv, near Khatishche and Volchansk, but have made no confirmed progress. According to a Russian blogger, fighting in the Volchansk area has been going on for months without success in pushing Ukrainian forces away from the border.
Ukrainian forces are successfully adapting tactics to combat Russian D-30 guided glide bombs, which have been used against the Kharkiv region since March 2024. According to Ukrainian authorities, the bombs have a range of up to 80 kilometers and can deviate by up to 50 meters from their target. Ukrainian forces are using machine guns and electronic warfare to deflect or destroy these bombs, as they have no thermal signature and cannot be hit by man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems.
Strikes with guided bombs have decreased after Ukrainian attacks on Russian ammunition depots, and Russia is increasingly relying on Shahed drones to strike in the region.
Ukrainian General Staff: Heavy fighting near Kursk and in Donbas
Russian army does not stop attacking
Russian forces are conducting offensives along the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremna line, but no new gains have been confirmed. Ukrainian forces have repelled attacks in a number of settlements, including Petropavlivka, Kupyansk and Kremna.
Russia continues its offensive towards Seversk, Chasov Yar and Toretsk, but also without confirmed successes. According to Russian sources, intense fighting is taking place in the industrial areas around Pishtane and Novoelizavetovka, but these claims have not been confirmed.
Russian forces have made minor advances in the central parts of Kamyanskoye, Zaporizhia Oblast. At the same time, Ukrainian partisans report increased Russian efforts to strengthen air defenses in the Kerch Strait area.
The President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, has leveled serious accusations at Russia for the shooting down of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger plane over Chechnya on December 25. In a statement released on December 29, Aliyev rejected Russian authorities' claims that the crash was caused by a bird strike or a gas cylinder explosion.
Aliev said that preliminary information clearly indicated that the plane was hit by ground fire near Grozny, and that Russian electronic warfare systems had rendered the plane uncontrollable. The president stressed that Russian authorities had only closed the airspace over Grozny after the incident, which he said was part of an attempt to cover up Russia's responsibility.
Aliev also accused Russia of pressuring the International Civil Aviation Committee, which is composed mainly of Russian representatives, to investigate the incident. Azerbaijan has refused assistance from that committee, citing a lack of objectivity.
Aliyev's statement followed an apology by Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 28, which, however, did not include an admission of guilt and was described as "vague". Aliyev is demanding an official apology from the Kremlin, an admission of guilt, punishment for those responsible, and compensation for the injured Azerbaijani passengers and crew.
On December 27, the United States delivered the first shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Ukraine. The delivery, which includes about 100 million cubic meters of gas, is part of a long-term agreement between Ukrainian company DTEK and American Venture Global, which runs until 2026, with an additional 20-year supply contract.
This is the latest move by Ukraine in its bid to reduce its dependence on Russian energy resources after it stopped buying Russian gas in 2015.
On December 29, Georgia officially inaugurated its new president, Mikheil Kavelashvili, a candidate of the ruling Georgian Dream party. At the same time, the incumbent president, Salome Zurabishvili, announced her departure from the presidential palace, but said she still considered herself the country's legitimate leader.
Protests broke out in the capital Tbilisi against the inauguration, leading to numerous arrests by police.