Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Western military aid remains vital to Ukraine's ability to maintain its defense against Russian aggression.
Putin continues to make efforts to force US President Donald Trump to participate in bilateral talks that exclude Ukraine, to impose on Trump his desired framework for negotiations and to force Trump to unwittingly approve of the ongoing Russian information operations about the illegitimacy of the current Ukrainian government.
This is stated in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Putin's long-standing theory of victory is based on the assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine, and only unwavering Western support and consistent supplies of Western military aid to Kiev can force Putin to abandon his theory and accept the need to offer concessions necessary for any resolution of the conflict acceptable to the United States, Europe, and Ukraine.
Putin has indicated that he will not consider any peace agreement with Ukraine as binding, stating that the Ukrainian government is either unwilling or unable to revoke the Ukrainian president's 2022 decree banning negotiations with Putin.
Putin's statements rejecting the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government and any future peace agreement create conditions for Russia to justify violating any future agreements with Ukraine.
Thus, the Kremlin creates conditions on a legal basis to ignore any future agreements, with manipulative interpretations of Ukrainian legislation.
Putin has repeatedly stated that Zelensky has lost legitimacy as president due to the failure to hold elections in 2024 during the war and the declaration of martial law, and the Verkhovna Rada is the only legitimate authority. However, the Ukrainian constitution explicitly provides for the extension of the mandate and the postponement of elections during wartime.
At the same time, he calls on her to take unconstitutional actions that could be used in the future to declare this state body "illegitimate" to justify her demands for a complete change of the regime in Kiev and her unwillingness to negotiate with Ukrainian representatives.
Such statements give Putin room for manipulation. Even if agreements are reached, Russia will be able to quickly violate them, citing false accusations of the invalidity of the agreements or the illegitimacy of the Ukrainian government. The Kremlin has used similar tactics before, violating the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015.
"Even if Zelensky or other Kiev officials agree to lift the decree banning negotiations with Putin, Putin will likely break any peace or other agreement he reaches with Ukraine under the false excuse that such agreements are "invalid". These Kremlin attempts to plot an opportunity to break the agreement will continue as long as Vladimir Putin believes he can achieve his maximalist military goals through military operations.
Putin’s claims about how quickly the war will end without additional Western military assistance and his explicit rejection of Ukrainian sovereignty are part of a long-term Kremlin information operation aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine and deterring additional Western military assistance.
Putin is right, however, that additional Western military assistance—especially American military assistance—remains crucial to maintaining and further developing Ukraine’s combat capabilities. Throughout the war, Ukrainian forces have consistently proven that they can achieve operationally and strategically significant battlefield victories when armed with sufficient U.S. and other Western-supplied military assistance.
Ukrainian forces have also maintained a tenacious defense, even when poorly equipped, notably forcing Russian forces to withdraw from the Kiev region in April 2022, before significant Western aid supplies could even reach the front, and significantly slowing the pace of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine in the summer of 2022.
Putin and other Kremlin officials have sought to portray Ukraine as weak and unable to adequately utilize Western-supplied weapons at this critical juncture in Western political discussions about Ukraine—even though Ukraine has proven itself to be anything but weak, having held off Russia for nearly three years of war.