Vladimir Putin can still defeat Ukraine, and do so on terms that are humiliating for Kiev, writes The Spectator.
After Ukraine accepted America’s offer of a 30-day ceasefire, all eyes are on Russia’s reaction. Will Vladimir Putin agree to the US offer or choose to reject it?
To answer that question, it is important to understand what Putin is trying to do. For one thing, he did not spend hundreds of billions of dollars on this war, sacrifice hundreds of thousands of lives, and put Russia’s entire economy on a combat footing to claim a devastated strip of territory in eastern Donbas. Putin wants to restore effective control over all of Ukraine. This is his life’s mission.
On the one hand, Putin wants to restore relations with Washington so that the US can lift economic sanctions. On the other hand, Putin wants to weaken NATO, sowing discord among Western allies.
The big question is whether Putin will agree to a ceasefire. That would be risky on the one hand. Putin also indicated this risk when he said last December that a ceasefire would allow the Ukrainians to take a breather, just when they are close to “exhaustion”. The Ukrainians would be able to dig in, resupply their positions and secure more external support. Then they could more effectively resist Russian aggression and even regain some of the territory they have lost.
Putin will have a few days to make a decision. In the meantime (as current data shows), Russia has increased its pressure on the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region. The Ukrainians are already in retreat. A victory at Kursk would strengthen Putin’s position in any future negotiations with the Ukrainians, depriving Zelensky of the only dubious card he had hoped to play to secure a reciprocal Russian withdrawal from Ukrainian territory.
Putin will likely accept Trump’s demand, but then he will increase his pressure again. It is clear what Putin wants: neutrality of Ukraine (backed by ineffective guarantees), demilitarization (which would leave Kiev at the mercy of Russia), acceptance of “realities” (i.e., the loss of territory), and repeal of laws that limit Russian propaganda and political influence in Ukraine.
The Russian president will want Trump to twist President Zelensky’s arms to agree to these humiliating terms. And if Zelensky stands firm, Putin could blame the failure of the peace talks on the recalcitrant Ukrainians and renew the aggression, hoping that by then Kiev’s morale will have been sufficiently undermined to lead to a rapid collapse of the front line.
Putin is a skilled strategist. President Trump, already inclined to see Zelensky as an obstacle to peace, could adopt Putin’s perspective and pull the plug on Ukraine, this time once and for all. And Putin could congratulate himself on a final victory.