The earthquake that shook Istanbul on Wednesday (April 23) could be a harbinger of a stronger earthquake with a magnitude between 7 and 7.2 on the Richter scale. This was warned by Turkish seismologist Prof. Ahmet Ercan in an interview with Halk TV, reports Focus.
According to the Turkish Disaster Management Authority (AFAD), the 6.2 magnitude earthquake was registered at 12:49 p.m. in the Sea of Marmara, off the coast of Istanbul, and was followed by a series of aftershocks. 236 people were injured, but there were no casualties or serious damage.
Prof. Ercan stressed that although the quake was classified as “medium“, it should not be underestimated, as it revealed accumulated seismic stress in the region:
“This is an earthquake that cannot be ignored. The threshold for destruction in Istanbul starts at 4.4 on the Richter scale.“
According to him, the expected larger quake in the Silivri region would have a magnitude of between 7 and 7.2 on the Richter scale - significantly stronger than the last one.
“We cannot say that the danger to Istanbul has passed. On the contrary - Wednesday's quake shows that there is a serious build-up of stress.“
Ercan added that the earthquake was shallow, so it was felt over a large radius - even to Izmir. According to his analyses, it is due to a right-sided rupture in the east-west direction along the North Anatolian Fault:
“There was probably a rupture with a span of 3-4 meters. The active section is located between Büyükçekmece and Kinaliada, on the Thracian arm. The fault has two main branches, one of which passes directly through Istanbul.“
Despite the alarming data, Prof. Ercan specifies that it is impossible to determine the exact moment when a possible major earthquake will occur.