Moscow makes associations between the war in Ukraine and the USSR's victory in World War II. Victory Day on May 9 has become a tool for the Kremlin to justify aggression and forge new coalitions.
North Korean servicemen will also march through Red Square in Moscow's Victory Day parade this year. Until recently, the Kremlin denied their participation in the military operations against Ukraine, but after the liberation of most of the Kursk region, this changed. Russian soldiers who are participating in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine will also march with them - they began participating in the traditional parade in 2024.
Who are Moscow's allies?
The parade will be watched by representatives of Pyongyang and the leaders of more than 20 countries, the largest of which are China and Brazil. Thus, Russia is trying to maintain the impression of broad international support, explains Mikhail Vinogradov, president of the "Petersburg Politics" foundation. According to the political scientist, if before the war in Ukraine the Kremlin used this holiday as legitimization, now "the topic of the horrors of war has been pushed into the background”. Instead, there is a focus on "positivity, victories and dominance." Among the guests on Red Square will be representatives of countries that have been subject to international sanctions: Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, Myanmar. "This year, which is an anniversary, foreign leaders have been invited again - if there are even 5-10 of them, it will be a breakthrough," says Ilya Graschenkov, head of the Center for Regional Policy Development. He recalls that in 2005, representatives of more than 50 countries arrived in Moscow, and since then their number has been steadily decreasing. For example, the Kremlin failed to gather the full delegation of the BRICS countries - this year, Indian President Narendra Modi will not attend, and only the Minister of Defense will be present from South Africa.
Now Moscow is trying to present the parade as part of a new "anti-Western coalition", adds Graschenkov: "This is no longer just a diplomatic gesture, but an attempt to demonstrate allies. The Kremlin needs an international victory". At the same time, a "new non-aligned movement" is indeed forming around Russia, Graschenkov notes: "We can no longer claim, as before, that this is a purely marginal club, but the only question is who they intend to ally against."
How the Kremlin is using May 9 to justify the war in Ukraine
Graschenkov believes that in his speech Putin will again draw historical parallels between the "Great Victory" and the current hostilities in Ukraine. "But without direct comparisons, so as not to embarrass foreign guests," he believes. For the domestic audience, however, the Kremlin continues to carefully link the war in Ukraine with the victory over Nazi Germany. One of the major tenders announced on the state procurement website is currently looking for a contractor who, for 5 billion rubles, will produce "patriotic" videos, TV shows and interviews dedicated to the "80th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War and the military operations in the current situation".
Russian propaganda compares the recent liberation of Sudzha in the Kursk region by the Russian army with the liberation of Budapest, says political scientist Abbas Galyamov. "The mood among Putin and the Russian elite, if not victorious, is at least much better than in previous years. With Trump, they expect to reach an agreement with the United States. One country wants to regain its future - through business projects, concessions in relation to the Middle East, Latin America, China, within OPEC", says Galyamov.
Will the United States have a place on Red Square?
That is why the participation of international guests in the current Victory Parade on Red Square is important for the Kremlin, the political scientist believes. He does not rule out that the Kremlin's optimistic mood will be interrupted by new sanctions that the US may impose on Russia.
Despite the confrontation, a US representative may attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow, the propaganda Russian TV channel "Zvezda" reported, citing an anonymous "diplomatic source". As American political scientist Alexandra Filipenko suggests, this may be Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff. "For the US, participation in this parade is not of great importance. But if Trump decides that this will help achieve certain agreements with Putin - for whom the parade has an important symbolic meaning - Trump may send someone from his entourage," the expert explains. The possible participation of the US in the Victory Parade on Red Square could be perceived by the Trump administration as a business deal, Filipenko emphasizes.
Victory Day - a symbol of political division
The unifying potential of May 9 is increasingly dividing the world into two parts, and participation in one camp or another "is becoming a geopolitical marker," says Grashchenkov: "Victory Day is becoming a symbol of political division - who you are at the same table with, from whom you accepted an invitation. In fact, this is already a coalition, not just a celebration of a holiday." For example, European leaders who decided to attend the Victory Parade on Red Square - such as Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico - were criticized. Vučić also wanted to attend, but at the last minute he withdrew, citing poor health.
According to Mikhail Vinogradov, the Kremlin will continue to rely on the date of May 9 as a symbol of its legitimacy, just as it was in the Soviet era. According to him, Victory Day has practically replaced November 7 and has become a "new starting point" for the authorities - a day when the image of Russia as a victorious state and the heir to world justice is affirmed. Ilya Grashchenkov notes that despite aggressive propaganda, for many Russians the holiday remains "personal and sacred" - it is above all a memory of the dead and a sense of freedom won at a high price.