Europe can replace US military support, but it will take a quarter century and $1 trillion, according to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), cited by "Politico".
According to the analysis, a US withdrawal from Europe would leave the continent vulnerable to Russian aggression and would require difficult decisions to fill the gaps.
The cost of replacing US equipment and personnel is estimated at $1 trillion over 25 years, including between $226 billion and $344 billion in one-time procurement. The most expensive items on the list include 400 tactical fighter jets, 20 destroyers, and 24 long-range surface-to-air missiles.
The IISS estimates that in a large-scale military operation, the cost of replacing 128,000 U.S. troops would exceed $12 billion. The estimate does not include command and control, space operations, intelligence and surveillance, or nuclear weapons costs, which remain difficult to quantify.
A U.S. withdrawal would force European countries to take over key military positions, including NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, as well as to strengthen diplomatic coordination. However, even with political will and means, the European defense industry does not have the capacity to meet the increased demand in the short term, due to supply chain bottlenecks, a lack of skilled labor and regulatory constraints.
Meanwhile, data from public procurements conducted between February 2022 and September 2024 show that 52% of their value was awarded to European suppliers, compared to 34% for American companies. This is a sign of a growing "buy European" trend, supported by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House has renewed pressure on Europe to shoulder a greater share of defense spending, casting doubt on the reliability of the United States as an ally. However, economic difficulties in countries such as Spain and Italy may limit the scope for increased military spending.
French President Emmanuel Macron has championed the idea of a "true European defense", but limited budgets and public opinion remain serious obstacles to realizing this vision.