Europe is preparing for a military threat from Russia, which is assessed as real in the medium term. At the same time, the US is making it clear that if a crisis breaks out in Asia, it is unlikely to support Europe in case of escalation there too.
NATO estimates that in three to ten years Russia will be ready to attack the EU. The Baltic region is considered one of the most vulnerable - due to its proximity to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, where Russian troops are concentrated. In the event of war, the Russian army would be able to cut the Baltic states off from the rest of Europe by land. Historical and demographic factors also play a role: part of the population in the Baltic states is Russian-speaking.
Preparing for an emergency
“What if I wake up one morning and the border has already been breached? Will I be able to defend myself and escape? And where should I run?“, asks 43-year-old Riga resident Martin Krejtsbergs. He is worried about the possibility that the Russian army will one day invade his country. The man says that he has prepared everything he needs in his home for a possible crisis, as the Latvian Ministry of Defense calls for: drinking water, cash, batteries, medicine. He also bought a motorcycle so he could avoid traffic jams if there is an evacuation.
Since last year, the Latvian Ministry of Defense has been preparing the population for an emergency: people are advised to prepare a bag containing everything they need for 72 hours. This period is considered critical - in the first three days after the start of a possible crisis, state services may be overloaded or completely inaccessible. During this time, everyone should find shelter and wait for evacuation.
„Baltic Defense Line“
In the coming years, the Baltic countries intend to create a single defense line along their eastern border. It will include a system of bunkers, concrete blocks, and part of the border territory will be mined. In addition, Estonia has committed to building a military base in Narva - right on the border with Russia. All this - against the backdrop of the increasingly common opinion among experts that in the event of a conflict with Russia, the US will not provide significant military support to Europe. According to a confidential Pentagon document obtained by the “Washington Post“, in the event of an armed confrontation with China, Washington's priority may shift to Asia - especially if Moscow achieves success on the European front.
The EU's most vulnerable areas, in the absence of US support, are air defense, intelligence and logistics, notes Eitvydas Bajārunas, an expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “Europe must prepare for scenarios in which the US leadership role is absent or delayed“, the expert writes. He noted that the Baltic countries are already adopting the “Finnish mindset”: they are returning or expanding military service, investing in civil defense, and building physical barriers on the borders with Russia and Belarus. “With the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, the region has become a connected defense space, in which the threat from the east is perceived not as something hypothetical, but as a matter of practical readiness.“
Rail Baltica and energy independence
“Farewell, Russia. Farewell, Lenin” - with these words, the President of Lithuania confirmed a historic decision: Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are withdrawing from the BRELL energy ring. This system, which united post-Soviet states, including Russia and Belarus, allowed the countries to exchange electricity and support each other in the event of a power outage.
The decision was made as part of a long-term strategy to ensure energy independence from Moscow. “We have deprived Russia of any theoretical opportunity to use its control over the energy system as a weapon of geopolitical blackmail“, said Lithuanian Energy Minister Žigimantas Vaičiūnas. The Baltic states have synchronized their electricity supply systems with continental Europe, fearing a hybrid war by Russia.
The Baltic states also plan to connect to Europe via the Rail Baltica railway line - the tracks for the route from Tallinn to Warsaw are currently being laid. The project was conceived as a civic initiative, but after the start of Russia's war against Ukraine, it also acquired strategic importance. It is now increasingly seen as an element of defense infrastructure.
Lithuanian Minister of Transport and Communications Eugeniusz Sabutis believes that in the event of a military conflict, Rail Baltica will be able to ensure the evacuation of up to 100,000 people per day, as well as the transportation of up to 55,000 tons of cargo per day, including military equipment and supplies. According to the latest data, the construction of Rail Baltica is expected to be completed by 2030.
Defense financing and coordination of efforts
The Baltic countries and Poland have already increased their defense spending to almost 3.5 percent of GDP - one of the highest indicators in Europe. Thus, they seek to strengthen not only their own security, but also to meet the US requirements for increased defense spending, notes Kristi Raik, director of the International Center for Defense and Security in Estonia.
With these actions, the "frontline countries" hope to maintain the American presence on the continent, she points out, but adds that this creates an ambiguous situation: the demonstration of greater defense readiness can be interpreted in Washington as a signal for a possible withdrawal of their troops. “In any case, redistributing the military burden would help avoid a sudden withdrawal of American troops,“ notes Reich.
"For reliable deterrence in Europe and preventing a rapid Russian breakthrough in the Baltic states, a minimum of 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles and 700 artillery pieces would be needed. This is greater combat power than that currently available to the French, German, Italian and British land forces combined,“ researchers from the Bruegel Center for Analytical Studies note.
Is Russia ready for a new war?
Russia is currently focusing its efforts on the front against Ukraine, where it is suffering heavy losses and experiencing a shortage of a number of weapons, but this is no guarantee that it will not engage in a new military conflict, military expert Pavel Luzin told DW. “Russia was not ready technically in 2022, but it invaded anyway“, he reminds.
At the same time, Luzin admits that the current potential of the combined EU armed forces significantly exceeds Ukraine's capabilities at the beginning of the great war. In addition, Russia's armed forces no longer have their previous capabilities and there will be no return to the previous model, he believes.
If Russia manages to achieve a temporary pause in the war, the efforts of its military policy will be directed towards further militarization, the expert suggests. According to him, a transition to a model in which the presence of military experience will become a condition for access to education, career growth and social mobility, including the right to move to larger cities, is possible. Luzin says that Russia will continue to imitate a high-tech army, as is done in North Korea, but will rely more on numbers and combat readiness.
Author: Alexey Strelnikov