The victory in the Polish presidential election of the nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki, a supporter of the idea of "Poland first", represents a strong symbolic blow for Brussels, especially on the issue of the rule of law. However, Nawrocki's victory is not expected to derail the European agenda. In practice, the future Polish president will have limited influence on Polish foreign policy, because Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who is a staunch pro-European, represents Poland at European summits, BTA writes, citing AFP.
However, the result of the Polish elections leads to five conclusions:
Orban's camp is strengthened
Nawrocki strengthens the nationalist camp in Europe alongside Hungary's Viktor Orban, Slovakia's Robert Fico and, to some extent, Italy's Giorgia Meloni. The Hungarian prime minister was among the first to rejoice at what he called the fantastic victory of the conservative Polish presidential candidate and said he was eager to work with him.
“We have to take the results of these elections very seriously”, said Ramona Koman, a specialist in European affairs at the Free University of Brussels. According to her, the success of the 42-year-old historian Nawrocki, who also attracted the votes of the far right, illustrates “a great democratic disappointment“, which is observed not only in Poland, but also throughout the Old Continent.
Tensions over the rule of law
In Poland, which has a population of 38 million, the president's powers are of course limited, but he still has a strong veto right, with which he can block the government's program on abortion, media independence or issues related to the LGBT community. This, in turn, could put Warsaw's relations with the European institutions at risk.
“We already experienced it during the previous government (the one before the government of Donald Tusk, who came to power at the end of 2023), when relations with Brussels were very tense, says Ramona Koman. She recalls that for six years the European Commission has been conducting criminal proceedings against Poland for undermining the independence of the Polish judiciary, for which the previous government of “PiS“, Nawrocki's party, was reproached.
On this issue, EC spokesman Markus Lammert said that respect for the rule of law is at the heart of European identity. “We continue to monitor the situation closely and support the Polish government in its reforms,“ he said.
Support for Ukraine is uncertain
Brussels also wants to make sure that Nawrocki's coming to power will not call into question Poland's unwavering support for Ukraine. Poland has taken in over 1 million Ukrainian refugees since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. and established himself as one of the most committed European allies alongside Kiev.
During his election campaign, the nationalist candidate was very critical of Ukraine's membership in the EU – a perspective that is defended by Prime Minister Tusk.
Nawrocki also accused the Ukrainian president of behaving in a dishonest manner towards his allies.
But the fact remains that Nawrocki's influence here is very limited, because Tusk, not he, participates in the European Council, where decisions on these issues are made.
A blow to climate ambitions
Another uncertainty created by Nawrocki's election as president is the future of European climate ambitions, at a time when Europe is debating the target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.
Nawrocki, who is a fervent supporter of the Polish coal industry, is categorically against the Green Deal - Brussels' highly ambitious climate plan. Nawrocki even promised to organize a referendum in Poland to reject the Green Deal - a prospect that, however, has little chance of success.
Trump's influence - a double-edged sword
What influence does Donald Trump have on European elections? To this question, which is bothering many representatives in Brussels, the Polish elections do not provide a clear answer.
During the election campaign in Poland, Nawrocki boasted that he had the support of the American president, whom he met at the White House shortly before the first round of the presidential vote. But a similar strategy did not succeed in Romania a few weeks earlier. Presidential candidate Gheorghe Simion, also a supporter of the idea of \u200b\u200b“Romania first“, borrowed from Donald Trump's slogan, was defeated in the second round of the presidential election by the centrist Nikusor Dan.