The United States believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin's threat of retaliation against Ukraine for the drone attack over the weekend has not yet been implemented and is likely to be a significant, multi-pronged strike, US officials told Reuters, cited by FOCUS.
The timing of Russia's full response is unclear, with one source saying it is expected within days. A second US official said the response would likely involve various types of air power, including missiles and drones.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity. They did not elaborate on Russia's expected targets or reveal intelligence details. The first official said Moscow's attack would be "asymmetrical," meaning its approach and objectives would not mirror Ukraine's strike on Russian warplanes last weekend.
On Friday, Russia launched an intense combined-arms attack on the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and the Russian Defense Ministry said the strikes on military and military-related targets were in response to what it called "terrorist acts" by Ukraine against Russia. But U.S. officials said a full Russian response was yet to come.
A Western diplomatic source said that while Russia's response had begun, it was likely to intensify with strikes on symbolic Ukrainian targets such as government buildings in an attempt to send a clear message to Kiev.
Another senior Western diplomat predicted further devastating attacks from Moscow. “They will be large-scale, brutal and merciless,“ the diplomat said. “But the Ukrainians are a brave people.“
The Russian and Ukrainian embassies in Washington and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Michael Kofman, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said he expected Moscow to try to punish Ukraine's Internal Security Service (SBU) for its role in last weekend's attack. To send a message, Russia could use medium-range ballistic missiles for the attack, he said.
"They will most likely try to retaliate against the SBU headquarters or other regional intelligence administration buildings," Kofman said, adding that Russia could also target Ukrainian defense manufacturing centers.
Still, Kofman suggested that Russia's ability to retaliate may be limited, as it is already throwing much of its military might at Ukraine.
"Overall, Russia's ability to significantly escalate strikes from what it is already doing – and has been trying to do over the past month – is quite limited“, he points out.
OPERATION "COBES"
Kiev claims that the audacious attack on Sunday (June 1) involved 117 drones launched from deep inside Russian territory in an operation codenamed "Cobweb".
The United States estimates that up to 20 military aircraft were hit – about half the number estimated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – and about 10 were destroyed.
On Thursday, the Russian government denied that any planes were destroyed and said the damage would be repaired, but Russian military bloggers reported the loss or serious damage of about a dozen aircraft, including some capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
The strikes, 18 months in the making and carried out by drones trucked to nearby bases, dealt a powerful symbolic blow to Russia, which has frequently reminded the world of its nuclear might throughout the war in Ukraine.
Putin told President Donald Trump in a phone call on Wednesday that Moscow would have to respond to the attack, Trump said in a social media post.
Trump later told reporters that “it probably won't be nice.”.
“I don't like it. I said, “Don't do it. You shouldn't do it. You should stop it," Trump said of his conversation with Putin. "But, again, there's a lot of hate."