"Another election, another stalemate - closer to Russia?" - under this title, the German public media outlet ARD reported today on the early parliamentary elections in Bulgaria - the eighth in a row within five years. The favorite is considered to be former President Rumen Radev, to whom critics attribute close relations with Russia, the German publication points out.
Backstage, corruption, impunity
The former military pilot is popular among his compatriots and is considered to be incorruptible - unlike many other political leaders. Accusations of corruption in Bulgaria are mainly directed in two directions - at the influential oligarch Delyan Peevski of the MRF, as well as at the GERB party, ARD also writes.
GERB has been the dominant political force for the past 20 years and has participated in the country's government five times. Former media magnate Peevski, on the other hand, is seen as the puppeteer of a system in which business interests, justice and politics are intertwined behind the scenes. Peevski is also believed to have great influence over GERB.
Rumen Radev calls this system a pyramid that systematically exploits society and ensures impunity through control over institutions, parties, the electoral process, the media and the economy - and promises to destroy it.
Pro-Russian or pragmatic?
Critics accuse Radev of being pro-Russian, while his supporters prefer to speak of a pragmatic-distancing position rather than an openly pro-Russian one, the German public media outlet further points out, recalling that in the past Radev has been criticized for his positions on military support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia: he is against arms supplies to Ukraine and says that they only prolong the war.
But in the program of his coalition "Progressive Bulgaria" has a clear commitment to the EU and NATO - without demands for the lifting of sanctions against Russia. Critics would object at this point that this may be an attempt to attract as many potential voters as possible, without denying the previous pro-Russian rhetoric.
The extensive publication by ARD also says that forming a governing coalition after the elections will be difficult. The publication quotes political scientist Boris Popivanov from Sofia University, according to whom it is not excluded that in such a case the political crisis will continue and there will be new elections. That now depends on the Bulgarian voters, he is quoted as telling ARD.
"Vladimir Putin's Trojan Horse"
The "Financial Times" (FT) also emphasizes Radev's pro-Russian positions. The publication even calls Rumen Radev "Vladimir Putin's Trojan Horse" and points out that his election victory could bring EU and NATO member Bulgaria closer to Moscow.
Radev is closer to Russia than any of the recent Bulgarian prime ministers. During his presidency, he refrained from condemning Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, criticized EU sanctions and opposed Bulgaria's accession to the eurozone. And at the final campaign event in Sofia, a photo of him with Russian President Vladimir Putin was shown as part of a slideshow with other world leaders, the publication further says.
The publication quotes French MEP Valerie Haier, chairwoman of the "Renew Europe" group in the European Parliament, as saying she was "very concerned" because of Radev's looming victory in the Bulgarian elections.
"Given Radev's attitude towards Putin and Russia, there is a risk of a pro-Kremlin government at a critical moment - he would be Putin's Trojan horse in Europe", Haier told the "Financial Times" and noted: "Bulgaria is important: the country is not on the periphery, but at the heart of the EU's defense architecture - and occupies a strategic position on the front line of Europe". Bulgaria remains an important producer of ammunition for Ukraine and is located on one of the main energy corridors supplying Central Europe, Haier also points out.
However, the country is also deeply affected by corruption. Or as Haier notes: "Corruption, the rule of law and Russian influence go hand in hand. "They feed off each other," she was quoted as saying by the FT.
"The analogy with Orban doesn't apply"
Despite his pro-Kremlin stance, Radev is unlikely to become a second Orban, local analysts believe. Unlike the Hungarian system, which gives an advantage to the winning party, in Bulgaria Radev will not be able to secure a majority that would allow him to change the constitution. This means that he will have to soften his position so as not to alienate his potential coalition partners, the publication emphasizes and quotes Boryana Dimitrova from "Alpha Research", according to whom Radev is currently cautious - he declares his commitment to maintaining existing European and Atlantic partnerships, but always emphasizes the need for a more balanced, more neutral and more independent position of Bulgaria in geopolitical terms. "A Radev government would be more favorable to Russia and more reserved regarding common European decisions regarding the war in Ukraine". But strong pro-European sentiment and dependence on European funds would prevent any drastic change, Dimitrova believes.
Vesela Cherneva of the European Council on Foreign Policy points out other differences from Hungary: "The analogy with Orban does not apply. Radev cannot gain an absolute majority. Moreover, we do not really know what his ideology is - he talks about peace and cheap energy, including from Russia, as well as about renewing relations with Russia, but this is not an exception in Europe," Cherneva notes.
And another assessment by an observer: Goran Georgiev, an expert on Russian disinformation at the Center for the Study of Democracy, warns that Radev's rise is a sign of pervasive Russian influence amid widespread dissatisfaction with the political class: "With each new vote, pro-Russian votes increase, albeit very slightly. Cynicism is growing, the country is becoming radicalized, people are more willing to try new things. They are always looking for a new messiah," Georgiev told the Financial Times.
"This would have serious consequences"
Is Bulgaria the next Trojan Horse, asks the German newspaper Die Welt. Suspicions of Moscow's interference in the election campaign are already in the air, but above all, many are wondering whether, in the event of victory in the elections, Radev will follow the example of the ousted Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and become an obstacle at the EU level, the publication writes, pointing out: "This would have serious consequences, since Bulgaria - an EU member state with access to the Black Sea - has a large arms industry and is a crossroads for gas pipelines that should make Europe independent of Russian gas." And the issue of the stability of the country, which joined the eurozone in January, remains particularly worrying, Die Welt also writes.
The declared main goal of Radev's campaign is the fight against corruption and the "mafia state". However, there are also reasons for skepticism, since he receives support from parties and individuals who are clearly part of these structures, the German publication points out, commenting that the agreement with Ukraine, which the pro-Western transitional government in Sofia concluded with Ukraine in March, is probably under threat. The countries want, among other things, to jointly develop and produce drones - a key technology for NATO.
In addition, according to Radev, Bulgaria should start importing energy from Russia again. If he really takes this political direction, this could have consequences for the entire European energy policy in the future. As a transit country, Bulgaria has an impact on the amount of Russian gas entering Europe, Die Welt also writes.
The Kremlin clearly views Bulgaria as a zone of influence, the German publication further comments, adding that Russian propaganda media outlets banned in the EU continue to maintain websites in Bulgaria. Massive disinformation has been flooding the country for years, Die Welt also writes, giving the example of Facebook profiles that spread the fake news that after the deal with Ukraine, Putin explicitly threatened Bulgaria that he would sever diplomatic relations.