For now, the fighting between Israel and Iran appears to be limited to the two countries. The United Nations, among others, have called for restraint. But what if those calls go unheeded? What could we see if the fighting escalates and spreads?
Here are just a few possible, worst-case scenarios, according to Air Force analysts.
US involvement
Although the US strongly denies it, Iran believes that US forces have approved and at least tacitly supported Israel's attacks.
Iran could strike US targets in the Middle East - such as special forces camps in Iraq, military bases in the Persian Gulf and diplomatic missions in the region. Iran's proxies - Hamas and Hezbollah may have been significantly reduced, but the militias supporting them in Iraq remain armed and intact.
The United States feared that such attacks were possible and withdrew some of its personnel. In its public messages, the United States has strongly warned Iran of the consequences of any attack on American targets.
What could happen if an American citizen were killed, say, in Tel Aviv or elsewhere?
Donald Trump may be forced to act. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long been accused of wanting to involve the United States in helping defeat Iran.
Military analysts say that only the United States has the bombers and bunker-busting bombs that can penetrate the deepest Iranian nuclear facilities, especially the one at Fordow.
Trump has promised his voters that he will not launch any so-called “eternal wars“ in the Middle East. But just as many Republicans support both the Israeli government and its view that now is the time to seek regime change in Tehran.
But if America becomes an active combatant, it would represent a huge escalation with a long, potentially devastating tailwind.
Gulf States Involvement
If Iran fails to damage Israel’s well-defended military and other targets, then it can always direct its missiles at easier targets in the Gulf, particularly countries that Iran believes have aided and abetted its enemies over the years.
There are plenty of energy and infrastructure targets in the region. Recall that Iran was accused of attacking Saudi Arabia’s oil fields in 2019, and its Houthi proxies struck targets in the UAE in 2022
Since then, a kind of reconciliation has been achieved between Iran and some countries in the region.
But those countries host US air bases. Some also discreetly helped defend Israel from an Iranian missile attack last year.
What if the Israeli attack fails? What if Iran's nuclear facilities are too deep, too well-protected? What if its 400kg of 60% enriched uranium - the nuclear fuel that is just a small step away from being fully weapons-grade, enough for ten bombs - is not destroyed?
It is believed to be hidden deep in secret mines. Israel may have killed some nuclear scientists, but no amount of bombs can destroy Iran's know-how and expertise.
What if these new military leaders around the table are more stubborn and less cautious than their deceased predecessors?
At the very least, it could force Israel into further attacks, potentially tying the region into a continuous cycle of strikes and counterattacks. The Israelis have a brutal term for this strategy; they call it “mowing the lawn.”
There is a global economic shock. The price of oil is already rising.
What if Iran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz, further restricting the movement of oil?
What if – on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula – the Houthis in Yemen redouble their efforts to attack shipping in the Red Sea? They are Iran’s last remaining so-called proxy ally with a history of unpredictability and a high appetite for risk.
Many countries around the world are already suffering from a cost-of-living crisis. The rising price of oil would contribute to inflation in a global economic system already creaking under the weight of Trump’s tariff war.
What if Israel succeeds in its long-term goal of bringing about the collapse of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran?
Netanyahu has said his primary goal is to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities. But in a statement a few days ago, he made clear that his broader goal includes regime change. He told the “proud people of Iran” that his attack was “clearing the way for your freedom” from what he called their “evil and oppressive regime.”
The overthrow of the Iranian government may appeal to some in the region, especially some Israelis. But what vacuum might that leave?
What does the conflict in Iran look like?
Many remember what happened to Iraq and Libya, when strong centralized governments were removed. So much depends on how this conflict unfolds in the coming days, according to analysts at the Air Force.
How - and how hard - will Iran respond? And what restrictions - if any - can the United States impose on Israel?
Much will depend on the answer to these two questions.