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Russia may lose a key ally

Moscow is increasingly presenting itself as an alternative to a post-colonial international order and needs allies to show that it is not actually isolated

Jun 18, 2025 16:54 371

Russia may lose a key ally  - 1

The war in Ukraine has reinforced the trend of geopolitical division of the world between the West, on the one hand, and the great Eastern powers, on the other, which began to emerge clearly after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Russia and China are increasingly openly challenging the international order dominated by the United States and its allies, BTA writes.

After its full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago, Russia has found itself isolated, which the West has imposed on it through sanctions and bans in a number of areas - from politics to the economy to sports. In response, Moscow is increasingly presenting itself as an alternative to a post-colonial international order and needs allies to show that it is not isolated, but also for purely practical economic and military-industrial needs.

As a result, an axis has begun to emerge that includes Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. These four countries have different interests, and some of them do not even border each other. What unites them, however, is their common desire to undermine Western dominance.

So last week's Israeli attack on Iran - one of these countries, which also provides significant arms support to Russia - has certainly caused concern in Moscow.

When Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, Russian officials described the escalation of violence in the Middle East as worrying and dangerous. Russian media, however, were quick to highlight the potential positives for Moscow, the BBC summarises.

Among these possible gains were the rise in oil prices, which is expected to boost Russia's much-needed revenue, the diversion of world attention from its war in Ukraine and the possible transformation of Moscow into a mediator, which would allow it to present itself as a key player in the Middle East and a peacemaker, even though it is itself at war.

However, the longer the Israeli military operation continues, the clearer it becomes that Russia has much to lose from the current events, the BBC comments.

"Escalation of the conflict carries serious risks and potential costs for Moscow," Russian political scientist Andrei Kortunov wrote in the business daily "Kommersant" on Monday.

"The fact is that Russia failed to prevent a massive Israeli strike against a country with which five months ago (it) signed (an agreement on) a comprehensive strategic partnership. It is obvious that Moscow is not ready to go beyond political statements condemning Israel for not being ready to provide military assistance to Iran," Kortunov noted.

The strategic partnership between Russia and Iran, the treaty for which was signed earlier this year by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Mahsud Pezeshkian, does not create a military alliance. By its strength, Moscow is technically not obliged to provide military assistance to Tehran, writes the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War.

However, during the signing of the pact, Russia actively promoted it, the BBC adds.

But now Moscow has limited itself to condemning and criticizing the Israeli military operation. Without taking any concrete action, it is rather trying to present itself as a possible mediator between Washington and Tehran, in light of attempts to negotiate a deal on the Iranian nuclear program.

However, it is far from clear whether Russia has the leverage to help secure a nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran, comment American analysts from the Institute for the Study of War.

Six months ago, Moscow already lost a key ally in the Middle East - Bashar Assad, the BBC recalls. After the Syrian president was ousted from power in December last year, he was offered asylum in Russia.

The prospect of regime change in Iran, the thought of losing another strategic partner in the region, will be of great importance to Moscow, the BBC notes.

Commenting yesterday on events in the Middle East, the newspaper "Moskovsky Komsomolets" concluded: "At the moment, huge changes are taking place in world politics in real time, which will affect life in our country, directly or indirectly."

Vladimir Putin will spend much of this week in his hometown of St. Petersburg, which will host the traditional international economic forum.

The annual event was once called "Russian Davos", but the label is no longer quite appropriate, the BBC points out. The CEOs of major Western companies have not attended the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in recent years, particularly since the start of the war in Ukraine.

However, the organizers stressed that this year representatives from more than 140 countries and territories will attend. Russian authorities will almost certainly use the event to try to demonstrate that attempts to isolate the country over the war in Ukraine have failed, the BBC predicts, adding: the forum may be economic, but geopolitics is never far away.

And eyes will undoubtedly be turned to what is happening in the Middle East.

CNN television writes in an analysis on its website that even if it loses another ally in the region, Russia could gain from the chaos that would ensue. At first glance, Moscow has a lot to lose, but in fact things are not as bad for it as they might seem. In fact, this latest conflict in the Middle East is very beneficial for the Kremlin, sums up the thesis of the American television's chief correspondent for global affairs Matthew Chance.

Russia may be deprived of a useful "strategic partner", and its apparent powerlessness to defend it - be perceived as another humiliation. On the other hand, however, energy revenues will increase, Moscow will try to enter the role of a mediator, equal to Washington and Beijing on the international stage, and world attention will be diverted from its war against Ukraine, says Chance's thesis.

Still, statements are one thing, but the situation on the ground and real allies - quite another. And historical experience shows that without real power, the diplomacy that stands behind it is weak. So a possible heavy defeat of Iran, not to mention the possible arrival of pro-Western authorities in Tehran, would definitely be a geopolitical blow for Russia.