Midnight attacks with hundreds of drones and missiles against Kiev, Odessa, Kharkiv and a number of other Ukrainian cities: Russia has recently stepped up its air strikes. In one of them alone - against the capital Kiev - the Russian army used over 500 drones, as well as "Dagger" missiles and "Iskander", and Ukrainian media described it as "a night of hell".
"Thousands of drones a month, maybe even tens of thousands"
Russia is able to carry out these massive air attacks thanks to the fact that it has significantly expanded the production of unmanned aerial vehicles and is no longer dependent on Iran, as it was in 2022.
This is confirmed to DW by military technology expert David Hambling. "Now thousands of drones are being produced a month, maybe even tens of thousands. "That's enough to penetrate most defense systems designed to intercept missiles," he explains.
Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces points out that Russia could not have carried out such massive attacks on Ukraine without the help of other countries. China supplies Russia with parts that it uses to produce its own drones, and North Korea supplies Moscow with ballistic missiles. "It is clear that Russia is relying on supporters", says Reisner.
The goal: to terrorize the Ukrainian population
After one of these massive attacks on Kiev, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky explained why Russia is intensifying the shelling of the capital: Vladimir Putin wants "people to suffer and flee Ukraine, and homes, schools and life in general to be destroyed everywhere, not just at the frontline", Ukrainian news portal NV quotes Zelensky as saying.
Citing sources close to the Kremlin, "The New York Times" writes that in this way Russia intends to break Ukraine's defenses in the coming months. And Colonel Reisner claims that with his latest combined attacks, Vladimir Putin is trying to achieve two strategic goals - first, to destroy the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, and second, to influence Ukrainian society by attacking the civilian population. "In this way, targeted attacks on the population, which should be further weakened through terror, are an indirect attempt to put pressure on the Ukrainian government," Reisner believes.
Is Russia's summer offensive starting?
Many military experts expect Russia to launch a new offensive this summer. German political scientist Andreas Heinemann-Grüder sees the increasing number of combined attacks that Ukraine has been subjected to recently as part of this campaign.
Russia's goal is to disable Ukrainian air defenses to such an extent that the losses cannot be compensated for by supplies from Western countries. This could also be a sign that Russia is preparing for the "decisive battle", suggests Heinemann-Grueder. He does not rule out the possibility that Russia will be able to push Ukraine against the wall by the end of this year or the beginning of next year and thus force it to accept the Kremlin's demands.
What can the West do?
Experts told DW that the West must take more decisive action to seize the initiative on the battlefield from Russia. At the conference on the reconstruction of Ukraine, which took place these days in Rome, Volodymyr Zelensky explained that Ukraine has found a solution to repel Russian attacks: interceptor drones. At the same time, he stressed that his country's defense sector urgently needs significant investments.
Colonel Reisner confirms that Ukraine is already achieving good results in the production of its own unmanned aerial vehicles. However, it still cannot do without Western support - especially when it comes to special weapons systems, such as the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has already announced that Germany is ready to purchase Patriot systems from the United States for Ukraine.
To provide truly effective assistance, the West must overcome its fears that weapons supplied to Ukraine could fall into Russian hands, says Andreas Heinemann-Grüder. According to him, some Western defense companies fear that this could lead to a loss of their technological advantage. Another concern is that if joint ventures are established with Ukraine, this could lower the prices of their products. "This type of thinking must be overcome," the expert points out in this regard.
Author: Sergey Satanovsky