For Russia, 2025 will be the decisive year in its war against Ukraine. This is what retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan says in his blog.
On the front, the Russians are starting a big push, wanting to seize more Ukrainian lands. The Russians are planting the information space with the thesis that time is running in their favor, but the reality is different – Vladimir Putin wants to end the war now because the Russian economy is under severe pressure.
The shadow over the budget, the declining quality of the ground forces, the growing dependence on North Korea and China, and the pressure from President Trump to end the war are forcing the Russian president to step up ground and air operations against Ukraine. While he may publicly discuss his ability to wage this war for a long time, the reality is far from that.
Just one indicator of this was Putin’s announcement in late June that Russia’s military spending would be reduced starting in 2026. Putin hopes that a serious effort this year will put him in a negotiating position.
Ukraine’s eastern front line is under significant pressure from the Russians right now. The Russians are advancing slowly, but at great cost. The Russians are not gaining enough territory to create a real sense of overall success, the Australian general says.
Putin is doing everything he can to achieve these successes now. He needs something to negotiate with when peace talks begin, he needs to potentially reduce the cost of war, and he probably wants to reduce his overall reliance on North Korea and China. He is probably under much more pressure than we realize.
By air, Russia continues to strike Ukraine with large-scale drone and missile attacks. Although many of them have been shot down, enough still pass through Ukraine’s air defense network to cause damage and increase the suffering of the Ukrainian people in many cities.
This Russian air-to-ground push is unlikely to lead to a major shift in the balance of power or provide either side with any significant new leverage for eventual peace negotiations.
In essence, both Russia and Ukraine face organizational challenges, albeit of different natures. Ukraine suffers from delayed mobilization, while Russia struggles to turn its vast resource advantage into a unified and coordinated force.