Russian forces have likely begun artillery and drone preparations on the battlefield for the expected spring-summer offensive in 2026 in the Donetsk region. They shelled Bilenka (about 14 kilometers from the front line and immediately northeast of Kramatorsk, the northern end of the Fortress Belt - a series of fortified towns that have formed the backbone of Ukrainian defense in Donetsk Oblast since 2014) on February 26 and 27.
This is according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
A Russian ground offensive to capture the Fortress Belt is likely to be a multi-year operational effort that would cost the Russian military command significant time, manpower, and resources. Russian forces have so far been unable or unwilling to concentrate the resources needed for a decisive offensive operation, especially against the Fortress Belt.
According to reports, Russia is expanding its efforts to recruit personnel from higher education institutions to serve in the Russian Unmanned Systems Forces (UAS). The BBC Russian Service reported on February 27 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) has expanded its recruitment efforts to at least 95 educational institutions across Russia and has pressured students to sign contracts with the MOD during in-person meetings at 90 of these institutions.
The BBC Russian Service noted that the 95 educational institutions do not include institutions where the Russian MOD is conducting "indirect recruitment", such as opening centers for unmanned systems at Russian universities.
The BBC Russian Service noted that Russian universities are posting recruitment ads, which is likely to attract more students to sign contracts with the MOD. The German-based Russian opposition media outlet Echo reported on February 26 that the Russian Ministry of Defense is recruiting students from at least 57 universities and 13 colleges and technical colleges in 24 federal subjects, including occupied Crimea, and has expanded its recruitment campaign to include all students, not just those who perform poorly in their academic performance. "Echo" noted that the Russian Ministry of Defense promises students that they will serve only in units of the US Air Force (a preferred military profession that involves a lower risk to life and limb than infantry), but at least some of the contracts contain wording that would allow the Ministry of Defense to send the recruits to any Russian military unit, not just a unit of the US Air Force.
"Echo" reported that the Russian Defense Ministry is using "carrot and stick" tactics, offering benefits including high salaries, a guaranteed year of service, educational scholarships, and student debt forgiveness, as well as coercing and threatening students into signing contracts. The Russian opposition newspaper Meduza reported on February 26 that the Novosibirsk College of Transport Technology "Nikolai Lunin" had organized a three-day screening of propaganda films about Russians who allegedly "betrayed" Russia because the students refused to volunteer for military service.
The Russian Defense Ministry began recruiting Russian students who had failed to perform well in December 2025 and began expanding these efforts in January 2026.
The Russian Defense Ministry may recruit the Russian conventional military with student recruits. Russian forces are increasingly struggling to meet recruitment targets, with the casualty rate in Russia exceeding the recruitment rate in January 2026 for the first time since the war began.
The Kremlin continues to crack down on pro-war figures in the information space that it cannot fully bring under state control, as part of a broader effort to consolidate the information space under Kremlin control. Russian law enforcement agencies announced on February 27 that Russian authorities had detained the founder and former editor-in-chief of the Russian news site "Readovka" Alexei Kostylov on suspicion of "large-scale fraud".
A spokesman for the investigation told TASS that Russian authorities suspect Kostylov of embezzling approximately one billion rubles (about $13 million) from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) during the implementation of state contracts.
On February 25, a Russian drone approached the French aircraft carrier "Charles de Gaulle" in the Swedish port of Malmö. The Swedish Armed Forces announced on February 27 that the Russian SIGINT ship "Zhigulevsk" had illegally launched a drone while in Swedish territorial waters in the Øresund Strait during the "Charles de Gaulle"'s visit. in Malmö.
The Swedish Armed Forces added that a nearby Swedish patrol ship observed the drone launch and took countermeasures, then lost contact with it.
Swedish Defense Minister Pál Jónsson told Swedish newspaper SVT on February 26 that the Russian drone approached the "Charles de Gaulle" while it was docked in Malmö, Sweden, on February 25, possibly violating Swedish airspace.
French General Staff spokesman Colonel Guillaume Vernet told AFP on February 26 that a Swedish system had jammed the drone about seven nautical miles (about 13 kilometers) from the "Charles de Gaulle".
Unidentified drones flew over a French nuclear submarine base in December 2025 d.
Such air incursions into NATO airspace are likely to be for reconnaissance purposes of known European military bases, equipment and defence infrastructure.
ISW continues to assess that Russia is increasingly engaging in covert and overt attacks on Europe and that ongoing Russian and alleged Russian airspace violations are likely part of Russia's "Phase Zero" efforts - Russia's broader information and psychological efforts to create conditions aimed at preparing for a possible future war between NATO and Russia.
Russian forces are likely to have used white phosphorus in Konstantinovka and may have targeted civilian areas in violation of international law. Geolocated video footage released on February 27 shows a Russian strike with what appears to be white phosphorus munitions against southwestern Konstantinovka, Donetsk Oblast.
A Ukrainian brigade operating in the direction of Konstantinovka reported that Russian forces used white phosphorus in the strike and immediately followed by striking the area with a FAB-1500 guided missile.
Although ISW could not assess whether civilians were in the affected area, the Ukrainian brigade reported that approximately 2,000 civilians remained in Konstantinovka. Protocol III to the Convention on Conventional Weapons prohibits the use of incendiary weapons, such as white phosphorus, against civilian targets or in areas where civilians are concentrated.
Russian forces have used white phosphorus and incendiary munitions, which are alleged to be in violation of international law, in Ukraine before.