Israel's latest military operations in southern Syria, presented by some Israeli officials as measures to protect the Druze minority, serve broader and more complex goals, writes the editor-in-chief of the Egyptian newspaper "Egyptian Gazette" Mohamed Fahmy. One of them is the strategic goal of weakening the Syrian state so that it does not pose a threat in the long term. Another motive is the domestic political vulnerability of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his tendency to demonstrate strength through military action when faced with pressure in his own country, BTA writes.
Israel should not play with the unity of Syria, as the calculations about the effect of its fragmentation are wrong, says the editor-in-chief of the Saudi newspaper "Arab News" Faisal Abbas. "Syria is not just a country, it is a geopolitical cornerstone. Its collapse would shake Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and even the Persian Gulf. "The region cannot afford another failed state, especially one that borders Israel, Turkey and Iraq," he writes.
The author highlights the reaction of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who held a phone call with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and sent a delegation of high-ranking businessmen to Damascus, demonstrating his commitment to Syria's reconstruction and reintegration into the Arab world. Abbas also recalls the quick reaction of Turkey and the United States and Washington's key role in brokering a ceasefire between militias and tribal factions in Sweida.
In a commentary for the newspaper “Ash-Sharq al-Awsat” Yousef al-Daini turns his attention to the internal causes of what is happening in Syria. The transition under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa was supposed to pave the way for the restoration of statehood, but events show otherwise. Sectarian, tribal, and religious groups that emerged after the collapse of traditional security institutions have formally joined the new state apparatus without actually submitting to it. "Each of these groups now acts as a political tribe, seeking to consolidate its control over a part of Syria, governing it through the division of spoils. State institutions have been transformed into spheres of influence, divided among these tribes through spontaneous agreements, rather than through a constitution or national social contract," writes Al-Daini.
Against this backdrop, violence is no longer simply a tool for achieving political goals, but for generating spoils. Some groups receive salaries from the state or regional sponsors, while others rely on alternative sources of income through smuggling, kidnapping, extortion, and control of border crossings and resources. "These groups compete to loot public and private property, occupy government headquarters, confiscate the property of displaced persons, monopolize subsidized goods, and trade in fuel and wheat as if they were resources for tribes in the open desert", the journalist explains.
According to him, for these forces, the potential benefits of war far outweigh the benefits of reaching an agreement, and if the "logic of loot" continues to operate, Syria will remain hostage to the political tribal mentality, and its territory will be divided among militias.
Restoring the balance in Syria requires not only political reforms, but also directly addressing the system of looting. The forces that want the best for a united Syria, led by Saudi Arabia, must intervene to push the country in that direction with the support of moderate states and the international community, Al-Daini concluded.
The tension in Sweida between Druze and Bedouin has been building for months and is a reflection of the ongoing insecurity in southern Syria even before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, British-Iraqi translator and historian, a specialist in Syria, Ayman al-Tamimi, told the Qatari newspaper "New Arab". During the civil war, the state’s basic security functions collapsed, with the Sweida and Daraa regions becoming key routes for smuggling Captagon to Jordan and the Persian Gulf, he said.
After the regime fell in December, the new leaders in Damascus and the Druze reached a security agreement that barred government security services from entering Sweida and left security in the region in the hands of Druze militias. But these militias do not protect Bedouin communities, fearing that their presence could spark violence. As a result, many Bedouin villages have become lawless and are often targeted by outsiders, Al-Tamimi said.
The ceasefire was essentially a return to the security agreement from before the unrest, but if it was previously a "diplomatic pact between two countries", it is now "a military deal supported by Israeli aviation", he points out.
According to the analyst, one of the most significant consequences of the clashes in Sweida is the shaking of the idea that a firm imposition of control by the government over the entire country is inevitable. This will also affect the negotiations of the authorities in Damascus with the Syrian Democratic Forces, which control the northeastern part of Syria, Al-Tamimi also said.
US President Donald Trump will continue to support Ahmed al-Sharaa, regardless of the clashes in Sweida, writes the founder of the "Beirut Institute" Ragida Dergham for the Emirati newspaper "National". According to her, Al-Sharaa’s power today is the result of US-Turkish investments with the support of key Arab powers. These interested parties see him as a stabilizing force that can prevent Syria from falling into complete chaos.
While Israel is open to concluding new security agreements and even exploring a variant of the Abraham Accords with Damascus, it is not ready to invest in Al-Sharaa in the way that Washington and Ankara are ready. Tel Aviv doubts that the Syrian president can meet expectations, which may be a realistic interpretation, Dergam adds.
She believes that the Trump administration is turning a blind eye to the recent clashes in Syria and accepting what is desired as real, without realizing that its policies could actually facilitate the resurgence of ISIS and other extremist groups. The US president also appears unfazed by warnings of a possible fragmentation and division of Syria if the violence gets out of control, and has therefore dismissed the unrest in Sweida as simple tribal clashes between the Druze and Bedouin, Dergam points out.