"The aim of the Russian offensive is to exhaust the Ukrainian armed forces so that they cannot resist. It is being carried out slowly and requires a lot of resources," Austrian military historian Markus Reisner, a lecturer at the Military Academy in Wiener-Neustadt, told DW. According to him, the initiative and momentum are currently in Russian hands, and the Russian army is able to advance mainly due to the fact that it is constantly able to oppose the exhausted Ukrainian troops with new forces drawn from the reserve.
How do you assess the actions of the Ukrainian armed forces?
Markus Reisner: At the moment, the Russians are trying to hold back the Ukrainian forces in the north, in the Sumy and Kharkov regions. The same is happening in the south to Zaporozhye, while at the same time they are trying to exert massive pressure on the central part of the front.
Something similar happened last year: then the Ukrainians were given the opportunity to weaken the pressure of the Russian troops in the central part of the country, because the unexpected offensive near Kursk forced the Russian troops to transfer forces there. In this way, Ukraine managed to hold off the Russian summer offensive.
Now, however, we see that the pressure on Ukraine is increasing and the exhausted troops are having a hard time holding back the Russians.
If Ukraine does not receive help, it will lose territory
How critical is the situation in Pokrovsk for the Ukrainian army? Do you expect an immediate withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from there?
Markus Reisner: We are already in the fourth year of the war and we know that when Ukraine received significant support, it was able to stop the Russians. However, if it did not receive help and was not able to mobilize resources on its own, sooner or later it lost territory. Let us recall, for example, the besieged Mariupol or the battles for Bakhmut and Ugledar. But also the successes of Ukraine at Kharkov and Kherson.
If we now look at the situation in Pokrovsk, unfortunately, we will see many signs that if there is no significant support or change in the situation on the front, sooner or later the city will fall. And not only Pokrovsk - there are four more cities that are under pressure: Kupyansk, Seversk, Konstantinovka and Novopavlovka.
The good news, in my opinion, is that the Ukrainian units are trying to conduct a mobile defense, so as not to hold the territory with ferocity and tenacity, as was the case in Bakhmut, but to react as effectively as possible to Russian attacks. We see exactly this in Pokrovsk: the Ukrainians manage to distribute their forces in a well-structured manner, despite the intensive drone attacks. This means that even if the city falls, thousands of Ukrainian soldiers cannot be expected to find themselves besieged.
Donald Trump has shortened the deadline given to the Russian leadership from 50 to 10-12 days. Will this have an impact on the events on the front?
Markus Reisner: Ukraine is currently being subjected to massive air strikes, which are intensifying with each passing day. This means that the country is forced to activate large defense systems. And here Ukraine's aides come into play - for example, the US president, who announced that additional "Patriot" systems will be delivered to Ukraine. But "Patriot" are only a response to the threat from cruise and ballistic missiles - they cannot help against hundreds of drones. This requires other systems and solutions that Ukraine implements independently.
Added to this is the fundamental question: if the situation at the operational level continues to deteriorate, what needs to be done at the strategic level to provide appropriate support to Ukraine? This is where Trump comes in, shortening his ultimatum from 50 days to 10-12.
However, the important thing is that these statements are backed up by firm measures, otherwise they will remain just threats. Then we will end up with exactly what Russia has long been talking about with a sneer: "Yes, we have already heard about ultimatums of 100 or 50 days, nothing will happen". Therefore, the main question is whether Trump will move from words to actions.
Trump faces a dilemma: the Russians are not doing what I want. I can escalate the situation, but I must be aware of what kind of backlash this may cause. And no one can say how it will all end - whether the Americans are ready to take the risk or not, as well as what consequences this will have for the Russian side.
Yes, he has already promised ten "Patriot" systems, but these are defensive facilities that help Ukraine repel attacks. And what about offensive systems that can operate from the territory of Ukraine against the territory of Russia, theoretically reaching even Moscow? This is a completely different situation.
Russia's allies are more reliable than Ukraine's Western partners
Let's get back to Russia. Which countries are Moscow receiving crucial support from? Without whose help could Russia not have waged this war?
Markus Reisner: In my opinion, it is wrong to believe that Russia is fighting this war alone - it is acting together with its allies, who, unfortunately, often seem to be more reliable than Ukraine's Western allies. Russia is receiving support from the Chinese, as well as from North Korea, Iran and India. North Korea, for example, has supplied Russia with 12 million artillery shells - a huge amount compared to what the West has supplied to Ukraine. China produces components needed for the drones that attack Ukraine almost daily. India, on the other hand, buys Russian raw materials cheaply and then resells them through intermediaries.
However, some European countries, despite the sanctions, continue to use Russian raw materials. And while the Russian economy is indeed suffering from the sanctions, they are insufficient compared to what is needed to ease the pressure on the Ukrainian armed forces on the battlefield.
Author: Olga Tikhomirova