"I myself needed this moment of truth" - this is how French Prime Minister François Bayrou began his speech to parliament yesterday. A few hours later, he was ousted after just nine months in office. The biggest problem that gave rise to this vote of no confidence - France's huge debt. The second largest economy in the EU has a debt of about 3.4 trillion euros - nearly 114% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). According to official data, the deficit in 2024 was 5.8 percent of GDP. Both figures are almost twice as high as the EU's stability criteria: 60% debt and 3% new debt per year.
Huge debt servicing costs
This year, France will have to pay 55 billion euros in interest alone, without repaying the debts. In 2026, the amount will increase to 66 billion, Bayrou said, reminding MPs that France has not had a balanced budget for more than 50 years. According to the 74-year-old politician, the country is facing a "constant flow of debt", in which creditors demand more than the country itself produces.
"You have the power to overthrow the government, but you do not have the power to change reality," Bayrou told parliament. To stop the growth of debts, he wanted to introduce a strict austerity program for 2026, which would save a total of about 44 billion euros. Particularly controversial among the French population was the plan to eliminate two public holidays.
“Political suicide”
Bayrout himself requested a vote of confidence, and the result was more than clear - 364 deputies withdrew their confidence in the prime minister. Benjamin Morel, a law professor at the University of Paris “Pantheon-Assas”, calls Bayrou's decision to request a vote of confidence “political suicide”. According to him, the politician overestimated his chances of success.
Even before the vote, it became clear that François Bayrou had almost no chance of winning it. The leaders of the parties from the left and far-right camps were categorical that they would not support the prime minister. Bayrou is the chairman of the liberal party “Democratic Movement”, which cooperates in the National Assembly with the party of French President Emmanuel Macron. However, this coalition does not have a majority in either of the two chambers of the French parliament.
Now it's Emmanuel Macron's turn
The French president's first task will now be to ensure the adoption of the 2026 budget, even if he is under pressure, says Benjamin Morel. He must find a new candidate for prime minister who has a stable majority, and this is a difficult task. The opposition parties - and above all the “National Rally” of Marine Le Pen, have no interest in cooperating with the government. Quite the opposite - they say they want the dissolution of parliament and new elections.
Eric Morris, a political analyst at the think tank “Center for European Policies”, also expects that it will be difficult for Macron to achieve political balance. According to the two experts, the challenge is to find a candidate who can retain the support of Macron's center-right wing while at the same time uniting the votes of the social democrats to be able to have a majority.
However, new elections are not being discussed for now. President Macron has already rejected such demands several times. The French president has also ruled out the possibility of resigning before the end of his term in 2027.
What does the French political crisis mean for the EU
Brussels is certainly watching developments in Paris with concern. After all, France is the second largest economy in the Union after Germany. Expert Eric Morris does not expect the impact of this crisis to be as large as the 2008 debt crisis, but France's instability could still have economic consequences for the European Union - for example, by reducing investment or reducing productivity.
There are also likely to be political consequences for the EU. Without a new government, France may not be able to take firm positions on important issues such as migration, agriculture, trade or industrial policy. And with a new government, France's role in the EU could change. Support for Ukraine is unlikely to change while Macron is in power, but Morris fears that Paris will find it harder to act - the planned increase in the defense budget, for example, could prove to be a complex task.
Author: Lucia Schulten