Donald Trump claims that crime rates in American cities run by Democrats are higher than in those with Republican mayors. Does party affiliation affect crime rates?
US President Donald Trump and his administration have repeatedly stated that cities in the US run by Democrats have much higher crime rates. Trump even sent the National Guard to the streets of Washington after declaring that the capital was "out of control". Previously, the military was sent to Los Angeles, where there were protests. This decision was declared illegal by a court in California.
Is there really a connection between party affiliation and high crime rates? DW checked this out.
Most big cities are run by Democrats
Before we analyze crime statistics, it's important to explain the political landscape in big American cities. In 2024, of the 100 largest cities in the country, 65 were run by Democratic mayors, and 23 by Republican mayors.
According to the Pew Research Center, rural areas are more likely to be Republican, and city residents tend to vote Democratic. Larger cities, in turn, have higher crime rates than rural areas. The overlap of Democratic leadership and higher crime rates may seem to support Trump's claim, but correlation does not imply causation.
City data doesn't explain the situation well enough
When sorting 2024 crime data by city and mayor's party affiliation, it's clear at first glance that some cities with Democratic mayors had some of the highest levels of violence that year. But in most cities run by Democrats, crime rates are similar to those in cities run by Republican mayors.
The FBI told DW that it specifically does not recommend using its data to compile rankings of cities and counties "as a way to measure law enforcement effectiveness" because they do not include the many variables that play a role in crime, such as population density and urbanization, economic conditions, population variations, and citizens' reporting practices.
There can also be huge differences in crime within the same city, such as the presence of safe neighborhoods in a city with high crime rates. Because population can affect the number of crimes committed, it is worth looking not only at the crime rate per population (violent crimes per 100,000 residents), but also at the crime rates in cities with similar populations.
For example: Memphis, Tennessee, and El Paso, Texas, both run by Democratic-affiliated mayors, are similar in size, but Memphis' violent crime rate is about ten times higher than El Paso's.
Another example: Irvine, California, and Virginia Beach, Virginia. Irvine had the lowest crime rate among the largest cities in the United States in 2024 and is run by a Democratic-affiliated mayor. Virginia Beach has similar crime rates, but is run by a mayor affiliated with the Republican Party.
Mayor's political affiliation has no effect on crime
We looked at the most recent available data from 2024, published in August, but researchers from several universities, including Harvard, Pittsburgh, and George Washington, have done a full analysis spanning nearly three decades.
Their study, published in January 2025, looked at data from 400 medium-sized and large cities across the United States. It found that the political affiliation of mayors made little difference to crime and policing.
"Election of a Democratic mayor over a Republican mayor has no discernible impact on police or criminal justice spending, nor does it lead to changes in crime rates or arrests," the study authors concluded. "Over the past 30 years, almost every city in the United States has seen significant decreases in crime, both violent and property crimes," Justin de Benedictis-Kesner, an associate professor of public policy at Harvard University and one of the study's authors, told The Harvard Gazette.
Violent crime in the United States is down about 4.5% in 2024 compared to projections for 2023, the latest FBI report shows, while homicides, including manslaughter, are down almost 15% compared to the previous year.
Looking at crime in a single year is only a snapshot. Comparing crime rates in individual cities from one year to the next, however, shows large fluctuations rather than a clear trend. It also suggests that crime is not affected by the party affiliation of the mayor, given that mayors hold office for several years, depending on the length of their term and whether they are re-elected.
Despite the decline in crime, public opinion often suggests that people feel the opposite. The Pew Research Center found that many Americans believe crime is increasing, even when the data shows otherwise. Between 1993 and 2022, crime in the United States fell by 49%, including robberies (down 74%), serious bodily harm (down 39%), and murders (down 34%).
The data and long-term studies do not support the claim that Democratic-run cities are inherently more dangerous. However, crime rates are influenced by a complex combination of socioeconomic, geographic, and cultural factors, not the political affiliation of the mayor.