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ISW: Declining Russian casualties per square kilometer captured in Ukraine

Russian forces report lower casualties per square kilometer captured.

Sep 10, 2025 07:17 719

ISW: Declining Russian casualties per square kilometer captured in Ukraine  - 1

The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army, General Oleksandr Syrsky, announced on September 9 that Russian forces have suffered 299,210 casualties since January 2025. This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), BTA reports.

According to ISW estimates, Russian forces captured a total of 1,910.39 sq. km of territory in Ukraine in May-August 2025, while data from the Ukrainian General Staff show 130,160 Russian casualties for the same period — an average of 68 casualties per square kilometer. The distribution by month is as follows:

  • May: 499.28 sq. km and 35,370 victims (≈70 per sq. km)

  • June: 465.8 sq. km and 32,680 victims (≈70 per sq. km)

  • July: 445.88 sq. km and 33,230 victims (≈75 per sq. km)

  • August: 499.43 sq. km and 28,880 victims (≈68 per sq. km)

During January-April 2025 the figure was significantly higher — an average of 99 victims per square kilometer.

The slowdown in the Russian offensive in the first months of the year is explained by the consistently high number of casualties and heavier fighting around key cities such as Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Pokrovsk. At the same time, in March 2025 the offensive temporarily intensified, coinciding with the cessation of the exchange of American intelligence information with Ukraine.

Public opinion in Russia

Despite the increasing losses and slow progress, support for the war among the Russian population remains high. According to the sociological agency “Levada Center“, 78% of those surveyed in August 2025 supported the actions of the Russian army — results similar to those between January and July (74-80%).

The survey shows that 66% of Russians believe that the country should begin peace talks, while 27% insist on continuing hostilities. At the same time, 39% expect the war to last more than a year, and 20% - up to a year.

According to “Levada“, 58% of respondents said that the war has affected their lives or the lives of their families. Of these, 30% cite the death of a loved one, and 28% - the participation of a relative or friend in the hostilities.

However, support for the war has remained stable since January 2025, when US President Donald Trump took office and began efforts to end it. The Kremlin has actively isolated the population in larger, wealthier cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg from the direct effects of the war.

Strikes on Russian Infrastructure

Ukraine continues attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. The commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), Major Robert "Magyar" Brovdy, reported that on September 7, the USF hit and damaged the "Vtorovo" oil pipeline station of "Transneft" in the Vladimir region. Satellite images from September 9 confirm damage to at least two tanks.

According to the Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR), explosions in Penza on September 8-9 affected two pipes of a major oil pipeline with a capacity of two million barrels per day.

Threats against Finland

Russian lawmakers have issued threats to Finland. The chairman of the State Duma defense committee, Andrei Kartapolov, said on September 9 that the country was becoming a “hotbed of fascism“ and that “nothing can be ruled out”, including military action. Alexey Chepa of the Foreign Affairs Committee also blamed Finnish authorities for the border tensions and warned that Finland's membership in NATO posed a threat to Russia.

The statements follow similar warnings by Dmitry Medvedev on September 8, echoing the Kremlin's official propaganda to justify the invasion of Ukraine.

Civilians hit in Donetsk region

On September 9, Ukrainian authorities reported that Russian forces had struck a mobile pension distribution point in the village of Yarova, Donetsk region. 24 civilians were killed and 19 were injured. Most of the victims were elderly people.

Ukraine accused Russia of gross violation of international law, as the strike did not distinguish between civilian and military targets.