Indian exports to the US are declining amid the imposition of high tariffs by the Washington administration on Indian goods, according to the think tank GTRI.
According to analysts, shipments of Indian goods to the US fell to USD 6.7 billion in August, which is 16.3% less than July. This is the sharpest monthly decline in 2025. “The decline in exports is directly related to the rapid increase in tariffs“, said GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava.
May 2025 was the last month of growth: shipments to the US increased by 4.8% compared to April, reaching USD 8.8 billion. In April, exports to the US were $8.4 billion. In July, they fell by 3.6% compared to June, reaching $8 billion. In June, there was also a decline of 5.7% compared to May.
Until April 4, Indian goods were imported into the US at regular prices. Washington imposed a 10% tariff on April 5, which initially had no impact on trade flows as importers rushed to stock up, which Srivastava said explained the surge in exports in May.
By June, however, the ongoing 10% tariff and talk of country-specific measures had begun to “undermine India’s price competitiveness,” the expert said, adding that orders were diverted to alternative suppliers, leading to a nearly 6% decline in exports.
The real blow, Srivastava said, came in August, when tariffs jumped to 25% and then doubled to 50% on most goods. “That left exporters with virtually no room for adjustment, leading to the sharpest monthly contraction on record.“ "September is expected to show an even sharper decline as it will be the first month fully subject to the 50% tariff," he said.
GTRI estimates that if the 50% tariffs remain in place until the end of fiscal 2026, India could lose $30-35 billion. This would be a significant blow considering that the US accounts for nearly 20% of India's merchandise exports.
Against this backdrop, Srivastava suggested that the government should expand support measures for exporters. “Without a rapid lifting of restrictions, the prolonged duration of tariffs could lead to job losses and weaken overall trade performance by 2026,” he said.
On August 6, the United States imposed an additional 25% tariff on India for its purchase of Russian oil and petroleum products. In late August, U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and services were increased to 50%. India’s Ministry of External Affairs called the action unfair.