There is a chance that the voters who will vote in the April elections will be over 3 million. The last time this threshold was crossed at the polls was exactly 5 years ago. The forecast was made by sociologists on BNT, and according to them, an outflow of energy has been observed since February.
The 11th national and 8th parliamentary elections in 5 years. Amid the marathon, a record was also set - the lowest voter turnout in the parliamentary vote since the 1990s. In June 2024, under 2.3 million people cast their ballots. Almost a million more voted in April 2021. Now, however, sociologists expect similar activity.
Boryana Dimitrova, "Alpha Research": "The higher the voter turnout we have, the more the severity of such abuses, controlled voting, etc. decreases"
Svetlin Tachev, "Myara": "How big the wave will be is not clear - but this impulse provides an opportunity to increase voter turnout, which will limit controlled and bought voting. There is always momentum when there is a new political entity or civil discontent, as happened last year."
Sociologists also measure an outflow from the winter, but it is the election campaign that is in motion.
Boryana Dimitrova, "Alpha Research": "There was an energy that was awakened, but the first surveys we conducted in February show a certain withdrawal of this energy. Potentially, it can be awakened. The campaign is a very important factor for this."
Svetlin Tachev, "Myara": "For me, this campaign will be different than in the last few years. Through social networks, through different networks - it will not be a good campaign, it is characteristic and usually a black campaign."
Their practice shows that on the day of reflection and on the day of voting, the parties add 10-15% to their result.
Boryana Dimitrova, "Alpha Research": "There is a certain ebb and flow of this electoral mobilization that we noticed in December."
Svetlin Tachev, "Myara": "The voters are disgusted with it and that is why it will take a back seat, there will be compromising wars."
Boryana Dimitrova, "Alpha Research": "What policies in the field of energy, what contracts, what decisions, what will they talk about future energy unions."
The integrity of the vote also plays a role, and the "Transparency Without Borders" Association called for a change in terms of electoral crimes.
Kalin Slavov, "Transparency Without Borders" Association: "Very often this localization of investigations activates some informal ties, contacts and political weight in places."
And more - exit polls and studies show that on the day of reflection and on the day of voting, parties add 10-15% to their result.