At the Doha forum of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation after Israel's attack on the sovereign state of Qatar, proposals were made to create the so-called "Arab NATO". Egypt is not only the initiator, but is convinced that the "dual center Cairo-Riyadh" will contribute to ensuring the security of the region and strengthen cooperation between Arab countries. And for the first time it calls Israel an "enemy". Another issue is that Tel Aviv actually failed to eliminate the Hamas operatives in Doha, who were the target of the bomb attack. But days after this event on September 17, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan concluded a strategic agreement for mutual defense, with which Riyadh provided itself with a "nuclear umbrella" from Islamabad and a guarantee that Article 5, like the one in the NATO treaty, will be applied without fail. Pakistan has 180 nuclear warheads and already has 2,000 advisers and soldiers in Saudi Arabia. India, in complicated relations with Pakistan, does not object because its neighbor's nuclear-tipped missiles will be directed elsewhere and Delhi will have one less headache. Iran refuses new cooperation with the IAEA because the promised sanctions are not lifted by France, Great Britain and Germany. At the same time, it supports ideas that are shared in Doha. With sentiments against Israel.
At that time in Turkey, the chairman of the Nationalist Action Party, Devlet Bahçeli, an old coalition partner of Erdogan, proposed a Turkey-Russia-China alliance against the USA and Israel. He defined this alliance as “the most suitable option for the strategic environment of the new century”. Turkish analysts define Bahceli's statement as emphasizing that "Eurasia is not an option, but a necessity". There is no way that these events will not cause concern in the West, especially in Washington. It is about the Middle East, about Israel, and it is the ally with a capital letter for the US. A day after Bahceli's statement, Trump announced that he would meet with Erdogan on September 25 at the White House. And they will sign "important agreements". This after almost a year of attempts by Ankara's diplomats to organize a meeting between the two presidents. Apparently, the reality of Eurasia is shocking the Atlanticists in both countries. The debates in Turkey were not long in coming. But Erdogan, in a statement before the meeting with Trump, was categorical - "We will take joint steps with the US to stop the bloodshed in Gaza, we will overcome the problems hindering bilateral relations". The relations will definitely receive a new impetus. And there is no way not to talk about a “significant commitment to commercial purchases, including military equipment”. It is unlikely that all problems will be solved as if by magic, but they will come to an agreement on the F-35. This is Washington's carrot, because for a long time there has been a refusal of Turkey's participation in the production and supply of this aircraft, including in the presence of a solid amount paid by Ankara. Of course, both the US and Trump will remain the same and will not look at the world differently after a meeting with Erdogan. Unconditional support for Israel will continue, despite the Turkish president's insistence on stopping the “genocide in Gaza”. But the pressure on Turkey will definitely weaken, “more supportive actions” will be taken for Ankara. Despite the insistence of Tel Aviv and Athens not to provide the F-35 to the Turks.
It is natural for the Turkish government to take advantage of the change in relations with the US in its domestic policy. Things are not rosy there. The opposition, supported behind the scenes by the West, continues with the protests, the opposition PKK holds a congress and re-elects its leader, Özgür Özel, who is not liked and is considered a dangerous competitor for Erdogan's party, the AKP. At this time, the mayor of Istanbul, İmamoğlu, sends congratulations on the congress from the Silivri prison and the anger of the country's citizens does not subside due to the lowered standard of living and high prices. This does not prevent Erdogan from signing a decree to eliminate the import duties imposed since 2018 on American goods and thus demonstrate special treatment to Trump before his departure for the United States. The hopes are that Israel can be encouraged to reconcile with Syria, not to bomb there, including Turkish military facilities, and a system will be created that will protect the territorial integrity of the country. After all, Sharaa, acting president in Damascus, will also be in the United States, which will be the first visit by a Syrian leader in 67 years. And he will deliver a speech to the UN General Assembly in New York. But at this stage it is not clear whether he will meet with Trump. It is complicated because he has confirmed participation in a Russia/Arab countries meeting in Moscow on October 15.
The media in Turkey do not hide the role of the US ambassador to Ankara, Tom Barak, in organizing Erdogan's visit, in regulating the situation in Syria, because he also appears there as an official US representative, for his participation in various formats in the region and in various countries. Without specifying the reason for the dismissal of 5 employees of the US embassy in Ankara. But they do not miss the meeting between the Syrian foreign minister and the Israeli minister for strategic affairs, which is of essential importance for Turkey due to the complicated relations between Turkey and Israel on the territory of Syria. And not only that. The concerns that after Qatar, Israel could attack Turkey have not yet disappeared, because there have also been Hamas fighters there for years. And because of Ankara's hardened position regarding what is happening in Gaza. Erdogan's ambitions for a significant role in the region and mediation functions for resolving conflicts will not end after the visit to the US. No one in Turkey believes that the Trump-Erdogan meeting will be unpleasant for the Turkish side or that the President and Vice President Vance will say something on camera that will put Erdogan in a difficult position. After all, he is not Zelensky. It is believed that Trump's son, who was in Ankara and met with Erdogan, "will orchestrate the final details of the planned meeting between the two presidents." But suspicions are not excluded that various lobbies, conflicts of interest, intelligence agencies, think tanks and employees at various levels in defense, for example, may make efforts to disrupt the new balance. If it does come to fruition. Even powers such as Israel, Greece and even Russia are cited, which "will seek to prevent the normalization of relations for some time, to prevent the sale of the F-35 and even to hinder the territorial integrity of Syria." This is, of course, Rojava, the territory of the Syrian Kurds, who are supported by the US and Israel. The demands for autonomy are becoming increasingly firm and there are signals that Damascus is willing to accept such conditions in order to consolidate its power.
However, the euphoria of Erdogan's upcoming trip to the US cannot cloud the assumptions about "what Trump will ask for". Predictions that "mine diplomacy" will take place prevail. Trump, in an effort to free himself from dependence on China for rare earth elements, which are used in the defense, space and biomedical fields, will focus on the huge deposits discovered in Eskisehir. It is assumed that this will be a topic of trade talks during the Trump-Erdogan meeting. Tom Barak has already defined rare earth deposits in Turkey as a "strategic opportunity" and Ankara as a bona fide supplier. It does not fail to emphasize its Ottoman roots, but when it comes to reserves of 694 million tons discovered in Eskişehir, then the interest cannot be insignificant. Moreover, this is a way to break China's hegemony in critical minerals. Trump had such an agreement with Ukraine for the extraction of rare earth elements, but the regions where the mines are located are already under Russian occupation. Even with changes to the Russian constitution, they are part of the Russian Federation. Now Ankara boasts that Turkey is the second largest country with huge reserves. After China with its 800 million tons of reserves. Whatever the plans, promises and challenges, it is clear that there will be a lot of trouble. Not only for minerals.
As they say, a signal was sent in Doha, i.e. there was “where they are knocking”, but in Ankara they expect Washington to get “where they are cracking” and to have its own dividends in the complex geopolitical environment.