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Gaza war exposes Europe's mental anguish

According to EU foreign policy chief Kaia Kallas, the new package will impose tariffs on more than a third of Israel's trade with the EU, which amounted to 42.6 billion euros last year

Снимка: БГНЕС/ЕРА
ФАКТИ публикува мнения с широк спектър от гледни точки, за да насърчава конструктивни дебати.

The deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza have finally convinced officials in Brussels to step up their efforts to punish Israel. But it is unlikely to help.

On Wednesday, the European Commission presented detailed proposals to suspend preferential trade terms and sanction "extremist" ministers and violent Israeli settlers.

The timing of this announcement is crucial. It comes just 24 hours after a UN panel concluded that Israel is committing "genocide", and as Israeli forces launch a large-scale ground operation aimed at occupying Gaza City.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been under increasing pressure in recent weeks to take a tougher stance against Benjamin Netanyahu's government as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza deepens.

The new package would impose tariffs on more than a third of Israel's trade with the EU, which amounted to 42.6 billion euros last year, according to EU foreign policy chief Kaia Kallas.

On paper, the effect would be significant, as the EU is Israel's largest trading partner. "This step will certainly come at a high price for Israel," Kallas said in an interview with Euronews on Tuesday.

But in practice, the proposal has little chance of winning enough support from European governments to be implemented in the short term - or perhaps at all.

The EU's history so far of taking action against what its leaders call "man-made famine" in Israel is one of strong words immediately undermined by weak follow-up action.

It has been 51 days since the Commission proposed what was then considered the most moderate possible sanction against Israel - the suspension of parts of the Horizon Europe research cooperation programme, in protest at the mass starvation of Palestinians. But even this limited proposal failed to get beyond the discussion stage.

While more and more individual countries take their own measures - sanctioning Israeli ministers and promising to recognize a Palestinian state - the EU as a whole remains hopelessly divided.

As von der Leyen herself admitted last week:

"This is deadlocked without a majority. We have to overcome this. We cannot afford to be paralyzed."

She described "Europe's inability to agree" as "painful".

The most problematic position is that of the bloc's economic and political engine, Germany.

Friedrich Merz, the new German chancellor, who comes from the same conservative political family as von der Leyen, has become increasingly critical of Netanyahu's rule since taking office in Berlin in February. Last month, he banned the export of all German weapons that could be used by Israel in Gaza.

But that immediately sparked a strong reaction within his own party. No one in Brussels now believes that Merz will back von der Leyen’s plans to suspend the EU’s trade deal with Israel – even if some believe that Germany and others would support further sanctions against violent Israeli settlers.

Without Germany’s support, trade sanctions would not receive the necessary qualified majority of EU member states to pass.

Formal sanctions against Israeli ministers would be even more difficult, as such measures require unanimous support from all 27 EU governments.

For Merz, the question of how to approach Israel is extremely difficult. The Nazi legacy of the Holocaust casts a long shadow over German politics. On Monday night, an emotional Merz barely held back tears during a speech at a synagogue in Munich, where he condemned the new wave of anti-Semitism.

"In politics and society, we have turned a blind eye for too long to the fact that a significant number of people who have come to Germany in recent decades have been socialized in countries where anti-Semitism is almost a state doctrine, where hatred of Israel is taught even to children," Merz said.

States that fail to take action to stop genocide can potentially be considered complicit under the Genocide Convention - a fact that could theoretically lead more European governments to support the EU's sanctions plans.

Germany is not alone. EU diplomats say several other countries, including Bulgaria, Italy, Poland, Hungary and Austria, have also refused to support measures to punish Israel.

Yet for Merz, domestic political considerations are likely to make it impossible for his government to accept the assessment that genocide is currently taking place - let alone take concrete action to limit trade between Israel and the EU.

Katja Hoyer, a German-British academic and author of Beyond the Wall, believes that Merz's relationship with his own Christian Democrats will weigh on his decisions:

"Polls show that Merz has the support of the majority of the German public when it comes to a tougher stance on Israel, but his problem is the reaction he will get from his own party," she said.

"The CDU/CSU has long been the home of those who strongly support Israel. For many, it is an integral part of the party's soul. It is already under pressure from various broken promises and disappointments among conservative purists on a number of issues. I'm not sure Merz will feel he can survive such a change in policy unscathed.

As for von der Leyen, the pain of Europe's paralysis is likely to continue.